Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Where is the market going?

Sideways has been the story for a while now after that monster rally that started from the #2 green arrow in area 2.  Notice price never actually entered area 2.  If you look at the chart of SPY (same day) it looks like a failed breakdown, and they say "from failed moves comes fast moves".  

The SPY looks like HigherHighs and LowerLows are in store for a while, but I'll use the QQQ chart to show where I think we are headed.  

Overall, I think we are headed to area 4 - we may bounce or we may crash thru - so the options are to go long at the top of area 4 or short at the bottom (essentially a breakout) for a shorter term profit. If we beak area 4, look for a re-trace back to it, then short.  Once we find ourselves down at area 3 I'm all long right there.

So - in the near term, I'm looking for a bounce at area 4 back up to about 55.50, then down to area 2.  If we take off from area 4 we might have enough steam to punch thru area 3 as this area has been softened already.

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