Friday, October 14, 2011

Where is the Market going? - Part 2

In the previous post there was a picture of the QQQ's along with my scribble on future direction.  The short turn bounce(s) shown with the white arrows was close but instead of rolling over and continuing a decline we entered a sideways market where there was high volatility and consolidation.  I have heard that volatility is highest at turning points, but all these phrases mean nothing to me without clear examples. 

The previous post also outlined a large area of supply with a triangle, I have shown the same area in the image below.  The rally that started at the green arrow was powerful and went virtually straight up.  Look for a bounce or quick decline at the rectangle area at the red arrow.  A short trade with a tight stop can be initiated here, low risk, potentially high reward.

This is the approach Sam Seiden would take.  The rectangle had a strong move away, and a strong return back to it.

My plan is to short it at the rectangle.
Enter 3 times, one at the bottom, one in the middle, and one at the top of the triangle.
1st target at about 58
2nd target at about 56
3rd target at about 45
Break even at the first target.
If you use a low commission broker this should be easy.  I use IB so I will even set bracket order using Tipster Trendlines, a set and forget strategy.

You should not follow this plan.  Do your own work.  There is risk of financial loss and you are your own trader.  It does not matter why I am posting this, what matters is that you follow your own trading plan and take responsibility for your actions. 

Move the stop to break even shortly after the bounce

Another approach is to use options.  A put option, I don't know enough about options so I won't do this.

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