Tipster

USDJPY not tradeable

2012-01-11T11:47:00.000-05:00

I have stopped trading the USD/JPY. If you look at the chart you can see it’s flat lining with no price swings. Take a look at the ATR on different time frames, the intraday isn’t that great either.

The average weekly range was around 430 points just prior to 2009, and since then it has fallen lower and lower, and now stands at a 117 points PER WEEK. The average daily trading range has often been in the 50-60 points region, sometimes more, but it has dropped off sharply to what must be close to an all-time low of just 31 points.

It is probably best to concentrate on the other major currency pairs instead, such as the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs for example, but watch that EUR slide!!

Tipster Trendlines for MT4 – NEW

2011-12-27T23:52:00.001-05:00

Here is the forum with the files

If your looking for an EA to help you place your manual entries, exits, targets and so forth, here is one that I just posted. All you have to do is load the EA and it draws lines for you, just move them around and start the EA. Here’s an excerpt from the manual that is posted with the EA file.

Introduction

I wrote this EA to be able to place my manual trades easily, avoid errors, and let the computer do the repetitive tasks. If you enter trades manually this EA should help you.

I use EA robots as well as enter manual trades based on price action. This EA can be used on the same platform as other robots, just make sure the Magic Numbers (MN) are different. This EA also used Magic Number to track, so ensure your broker let’s you use MN’s. Order comments are used but not required. Brokers such as Oanda do not let you use MN’s, and the comment field is filled out by them so be careful, run this on a demo account first to ensure it works as expected.

This document will only discuss the 2P version, the 1P is very similar.

Functionality

To setup an order, you need to place the 5 lines on the chart to a valid location (Entry, Stop, Target 1, Target 2, BreakEven), then go to Expert Advisors Properties and set LimitOrder to true or false. The EA will display the order type on the lower left of the chart, check it before you set “Live” to ‘true’ in EA Properties. Lines can be horizontal or sloped.

The EA determines the type of order based on the location of the lines relative to each other and current price. Note: If the ticket numbers (generate by MT4) are not sequential a pop up box will appear, you can select to delete the orders. If the order ticket numbers are not sequential, the EA cannot manage the trade properly.

Placing a Trade

Here’s a quick run through of how a typical trade set-up is accomplished once the EA is on the chart and MT4 is set up as described above.

1. Set up the lines.

2. Turn on the EA, EA properties à Live = “true”, LimitOrder = “true of false”

3. Price is not between the dashed blue buffer line and the blue entry line, the bottom left on the screen says “+LIVE+ …waiting. Sell Stop order set”.

4. Price is now between the two lines described above, two orders are sent to the broker (pending limit orders), and the only difference is the targets. The bottom left of the screen says “+LIVE+ <<PENDING ORDER>> Sell Stop order for 0.10 lots

5. The target for the second order is always closest to the entry, the EA takes care of this, even when you move the lines around when the trade is open. This is done so it can track the single remaining order once the first target is hit. When you have a pending order (not filled) you can drag the lines around. Note that the lines cannot be on top of each other, the EA keeps them slightly apart so you can grab them.

6. When price hits the entry line you are now in a position, you can drag the lines around. Be careful not to drag the targets or stops to close to current price or your position could be closed unexpectedly. Sometimes it’s a good idea to make Live = false and adjust the lines up, then turn it back on. You can also use the “Expert Advisor” button on the MT4 menu area.

7. A screen capture image is stored in /experts/files/ with the filename that shows the symbol, ticket number, etc so you can figure out what the trade setup was when you look at the picture in the future. Images are captured so you can review your trades later to see what you can improve upon.

8. After price hits a target one order is closed and the other is tracked by the EA as long as it is on and running. If you used horizontal lined you can turn the EA off. If you used sloping lines you need to leave it on so it will update the new order details as new bars open.

9. Once both positions are closed an image capture is stored in /experts/files/

10. To reset the EA you can just delete one of the lines, the line will be re-drawn and the EA will be ready to go again. The best method however, is to got o EA properties, “Reset”, then right click on the chart to “Objects”, CNTL A to select all, then “Delete”. Another way is to use the TipsterDelete script that will clear the screen.

11. Press Q and P at the same time to move the stop back to the red stop line. The EA will only move the stop towards profit and won’t let you move it away unless you press Q and P, then a pop up message appears. For this functionality to work, you must enable dll’s, and live trading.

Here is the forum with the files

Prettify / Beautify / format your MQ4 code in 30 seconds (or any code)

2011-12-24T14:35:00.001-05:00

Here’s a really easy way to format your code. Formatting code makes it easier to read the logic flow, this little program automatically indents, fixed spaces and tabs. After my EA's get to big and add the debugging to the mix, my formatting starts to slowly go out the window. I run this every now and then, it takes under 30 seconds. This is a command line formatter.

Go get the file from here or here

These links take you to http://astyle.sourceforge.net. The page at one of these links will describe the switches you can use with the command line formatter. I've chosen some that work for me to get your started.

Instructions
1. unzip and find a file called AStyle.exe (windows) in the “bin” directory
2. put the file in the experts directory
3. open up a command prompt window (start>run>cmd)
4. drag the AStyle.exe file into the window
5. add a space then type this after the file name -A2 -s3 --mode=c
6. Add a space then drag and drop the file you want formatted, press enter
7. Done. You see the original was renamed with a “orig” extension.
How easy is that!

A New Forex Broker

2011-12-24T14:22:00.001-05:00

Ever since MF Global went tis up, I’ve been on the hunt for a new broker.

Here's my deal;
I use Interactive Brokers, they don't do MT4 though.

I had an account with MF Global, through their Canadian office who were members in the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). When they went tits up I didn't have to worry, the CIPF covered me 100% up to a million bucks, I got my full $$ back in the form of a cheque with the help of the courts and KPMG.
Then, I opened a mini account with Oanda a while back, found out they don't allow MagicNumbers and they write a reference number in the comment field. Never thought to check the demo account, I mean why would a criminal do something stupid like like?? Live and learn boys and girls. They suck because of that, money is being withdrawn. Losers.

After MF Gobal
So now I needed a new criminal....

Rather than reading reviews, I first started looking for a criminal that actually had what I wanted, a little tougher here in Canada. I want a criminal to be CIPF registered. I found thehttp://www.friedbergdirect.com/ only by asking FXCM if they had a Canadian office. When I was using MF Global, they used Boston Technologies for MT4 as do FXCM. So I think I'll be OK with FXCM, I'm going trough the Canadian criminal, Friedberg Direct. Account opening is in progress.
I opened an account with PFGBest a while back, funding is in progress.

I called IBFX to ask them a bunch of questions and fill out my "criminal research sheet" and they said, since TradeStation acquired them, they don't accept Canadians. Now I hate TradeStation even more than I did 6 months ago. They are scared of Canadian regulations, they can go f*#% themselves.

In the end this is how I want my accounts to be setup:

Interactive Brokers - trade ETF's (index) longer term and some futures (Asia)

FXCM - 0.01 lot size - EA's that have proven to be profitable and bug free on demo are promoted to this account on a low risk setting, trading Live. One reason for this is I notice demo services puke quite often, all kinds of errors and order time outs at normal times of the day. If this account makes $$ I transfer to an account with larger lot sizes. They also offer to reimburse for VPS, account minimum has to be met. I use my home PC right now with cable modem and low downtime - Pentium 4 humming along running 4 MT4's at a time, each with between 3 and 10 charts open.

PFGBest - lot size 0.1 - use for EA's that have graduated and proven themselves to be bug free and profitable. They have a Canadian office but I elected to use the US office and also trade futures. I'll probably change this to the Canadian office and ditch the option to trade futures. Still pondering this.

I’ve almost settled and I’m pretty sure I’ll be OK with PFG and FXCM. I want two separate brokers with 0.1 lots and 0.01 lots. When an EA show promise on demo it graduates

MF Global

2011-12-14T21:13:00.000-05:00

I had an account with MF Global Canada, they went tits up as you are probably aware. I actually got 100% of my money back, KPMG handled the deal!!. The account was with the Canadian branch so I was covered under the Canadian protection fund that was set up years ago to deal with this type of non-sense. So if you look at my forex performance, you'll see it has stopped trading. I will be set up with a new broker and funded account by Christmas but I wont trade until January when liquidity is up.

Where is the market going?

2011-12-14T21:09:00.000-05:00

Sideways has been the story for a while now after that monster rally that started from the #2 green arrow in area 2. Notice price never actually entered area 2. If you look at the chart of SPY (same day) it looks like a failed breakdown, and they say "from failed moves comes fast moves".

The SPY looks like HigherHighs and LowerLows are in store for a while, but I'll use the QQQ chart to show where I think we are headed.

Overall, I think we are headed to area 4 - we may bounce or we may crash thru - so the options are to go long at the top of area 4 or short at the bottom (essentially a breakout) for a shorter term profit. If we beak area 4, look for a re-trace back to it, then short. Once we find ourselves down at area 3 I'm all long right there.

So - in the near term, I'm looking for a bounce at area 4 back up to about 55.50, then down to area 2. If we take off from area 4 we might have enough steam to punch thru area 3 as this area has been softened already.

Tipster Trendlines for MT4

2011-12-14T16:44:00.000-05:00

I use the Forex Factory and the Steve Hopwood forex forums mostly.

If your looking for the MT4 Tipster Trendlines code, go to Steve's site as I'm not posting it at Forex Factory any longer.

www.stevehopwoodforex.com

You have to sign up to be able to download files.

Where is the market going? Part 3

2011-11-06T23:20:00.000-05:00

Well my orders triggered.

I shorted QQQ at $58.99 and also bought a put option on QQQ.

Bracket orders set, waiting for price action to take me out, stop and target set.

Patience is the game now......

Where is the Market going? - Part 2

2011-10-14T22:09:00.000-04:00

In the previous post there was a picture of the QQQ's along with my scribble on future direction. The short turn bounce(s) shown with the white arrows was close but instead of rolling over and continuing a decline we entered a sideways market where there was high volatility and consolidation. I have heard that volatility is highest at turning points, but all these phrases mean nothing to me without clear examples.

The previous post also outlined a large area of supply with a triangle, I have shown the same area in the image below. The rally that started at the green arrow was powerful and went virtually straight up. Look for a bounce or quick decline at the rectangle area at the red arrow. A short trade with a tight stop can be initiated here, low risk, potentially high reward.

This is the approach Sam Seiden would take. The rectangle had a strong move away, and a strong return back to it.

My plan is to short it at the rectangle.
Enter 3 times, one at the bottom, one in the middle, and one at the top of the triangle.
1st target at about 58
2nd target at about 56
3rd target at about 45
Break even at the first target.
If you use a low commission broker this should be easy. I use IB so I will even set bracket order using Tipster Trendlines, a set and forget strategy.

You should not follow this plan. Do your own work. There is risk of financial loss and you are your own trader. It does not matter why I am posting this, what matters is that you follow your own trading plan and take responsibility for your actions.

Move the stop to break even shortly after the bounce

Another approach is to use options. A put option, I don't know enough about options so I won't do this.

Where is the market going?

2011-08-10T01:44:00.000-04:00

Here's my take at the levels to watch. At best the market will go up to the previous high, but this wold take some time. The speed of the drop was very fast, don't get in the way. Play the market only at the levels with reasonable stops. 'll be watching the top white line for a short down to the botom white line. As the market approaches the top white ine, I'll be watching to see if there are other sellers.

Trading Simulators and Trading Games - Practice Trading Online

2011-07-31T13:22:00.002-04:00

A long time ago I stumbled onto a nice little stock trading simulator, played online using a chart, any indicators you choose, and buy/sell buttons. I went searching for this today and stumbled onto another game.

Try it out, it takes about 3 minutes to play it Futures trading simulator

The better game is called "Chart Game", written by a guy with all kinds of other interesting blog posts such as woodworking projects he has done, and trips he's been on. This is the game I was looking for... Chart Game. Maybe a good tool to warm up for a few minutes before you place your first trade of the day. I played it for an hour today and beat the buy and hold. I remember playing it a couple of years ago and losing.... consistently. What a change!!

Chart Game

If you know any other site that offer something online (no need for a download) feel free to add a comment or email the link to me.

Here what this game looks like.

Trend - depends on lots of things doesn't it?

2011-07-29T23:25:00.000-04:00

The books tell you that are are many ways to determine the current trend and that you should trade in the direction of the trend. Want an easy way to figure out the trend?

Look at the chart below and I think it tells you where is it in the trend picture. The yellow levels are demand and supply zones. The books tell you that the trend is currently UP. All you need to do is map out the supply demand levels and see where you are in between these levels. Drill down to a finer time frame and rip the profits.

I'm doing this right now with currency futures. The performance data you see on this blog on forex is my MT4 account, thats only for spot. I use Amibroker and Interactive Brokers to trade the futures. I also use Tipster Trendlines AFL code for Amibroker to place and adjust the trades.

Video on Tipster Trendlines for Amibroker

2011-07-12T22:00:00.001-04:00

I thought I would offer an update on this code. The code might be "old" but it sstill works and I still use it.

This code allows you to place trades and modify trades right from the Amibroker chart. It has much more functionality than the current version of Amibrokers trading off the chart feature. Watch the video and see for yourself.

Here is the link to read more about this and get the code. Tipster Trendlines 3

Tipster Trendlines 3 from Another Brian on Vimeo.

This AFL code for Amibroker allows you to place trades right from the Amibroker chart. Once the order is place (transmitted) you can change it just by moving the 3 lines on the chart and pressing the button on the chart window. Once the order is filled, you can move the target and stop lines and press a button the change them too! All you have to do is draw 3 horizontal lines on your chart and you're ready to trade. Watch the video to see how it works.

http://blog.tipster.ca/p/tipster-trendlines-3.html

Forex Contest

2011-07-04T11:41:00.000-04:00

Alpari UK started up this years forex contest. It's free and offers 20K of prizes.
I've already signed up for it, under the name AnotherBrian, account number 28353.
If you want to see where I stand in the league table, here is the link, enter the account number in the search box.

Here's the link to register.

Alpari Forex Contest

Good luck!

Tipster SR

2011-06-29T00:20:00.002-04:00

So I made a system a while back for MT4, based on support and resistance. I backtested it and studied it to learn the strenghts and weakness. I've been demo testing it for about 4 months with good results, its not the grail but it trades without causing platform errors and long term produces some gains.

On MTI Live, it was running on Anotherbriandemo, you can see it in the comments of the published statement on the MTI site. It's now running on my real account. I've adjusted the published statement start date of the Anotherbrian MTI Live account to be the same time I started using it. I also use two other trading strategies on this account. ForexMorningTrade and dicretionary trading based on Sam Seiden.

FMT - I use this as more of a scalper with small lot size - this is like a real account test - I didnt back test it. I watch it the day it trades to see if I should close it or not.

Sam Seiden - I usually use a 1 or 4 hour chart for this. This strategy requires patience. In order to help me with that, I found having a robot running kills most of the urge to trade, so I can wait as long as it takes.

So, time will tell.

See the right side bar for performance or visit these links
Demo MTI Account
Live MTI Account

For the longest time I've been breakeven or losing slowly. For the past severla months I've been working on EA's and watching them, and trading myself. I think I found what works for me, as overtrading is a problem. Let's see what happens!! Join the MTI competition for some fun.... it's outlined in the post below.

UPDATE (July3, 2011): The MTI Live website doesn't seem to show things as they really are unless you include ALL history. I haven't figure it out yet (how to correctly show stats from a certain day forward).
The Tipster SR EA is LIVE. It's one of the 3 EA's running on my live account.

Calling All Robots v2

2011-04-29T09:50:00.020-04:00

This is a re-post. The first competition had some technical issues with the rules I set up so I stopped it and created another one. Join in!!

If you use MT4 (or MT5) and trade forex I invite you to join this free contest. The winner gets bragging rights.

I use MTi to track my performance of both live and demo account. My demo account is running a robot and MTi allows me to see the trade stats. They recently added a new feature called "Competitions". I've started a new competition and I invite you to participate. It's called "Calling All Robots"

To enter you need MT4, and an account with MTi. It's easy to sign up. Once you've signed up you download this and install, it installs automatically. You disable the FTP feature in MT4 options as this new file will upload all the trades to MTi. It's pretty slick.

The competition is scheduled to run from Fri, 27 May 2011 14:08 GMT to Wed, 1 Jan 2020 16:00 GMT
Basically, forever!

Rules The competition is open to both live and demo accounts.

All accounts must be in USD.
The maximum size of any individual order is 5.00 lots. Competitors will be disqualified if they place an order larger than this during the competition.
The maximum volume traded during the competition is 10.00 lots. Competitors will be disqualified if the total volume on trades during the competition is larger than this.
Competitors must not make deposits or withdrawals during the competition.
Performance is measured from the first equity figure published by your trading software after the competition starts to the last equity figure published before the competition ends.
Competitors must publish from the same broker account throughout the competition.

ENTER HERE

Leader Board

AnotherBrian is my real account.
AnotherBriandemo runs a robots, or robots, on test. Most robots are of my own making.

I also have started another competition, "Perpetual Trading", its for real accounts only and runs for a long, long time.

Tipster Trendlines for MT4

2010-12-19T22:32:00.002-05:00

I use Amibroker and IB to trade, I place trades right off the charts. Over the years I've developed AFL code (that's Amibroker language) to allow me to trade off the charts. Now that I'm also using MT4 for some of my trading, I was looking for something similar but haven't found it. So I've begun to code my own. Here are some of the EA's I've considered using on the MT4 platform, but just don't suit me;

TrendMeLeaveMe (TMLM)
iDRAW
Graphic Expert Advisor: AutoGraf
EASY

The AFL code for Tipster Trendlines is for sale up at the top right of the blog. The code for MT4 is free.

Here is an overview of the Expert Advisor (EA) called Tipster Trendlines;

The EA draws the lines automatically, place the 3 lines for the trade, press F7, select Order type, set Live to true. Review other options for EA and close the EA Properties. Adjust lines as required, EA will update prices.
When trade is closed, EA locks out. Press F7 and reset, then delete all objects or one of the trendlines.
Turn EA OFF before closing a trade or deleteing an order manually.
When order is closed by the EA, a screenshot is saved in experts/files"
Set up email in the MT4 Options, to receive updates of EA actions
When an order is placed or live trade, it doesnt matter what Ordertype is set to in EA properties
OK to use for multiple charts. To trade same symbol on two charts, use different MagicNumbers.

Here's an overview video

Developing an Auto Trading System

2010-11-06T12:04:00.000-04:00

If you've embarked on developing a trading system with auto execution, you have no doubt discovered that it's not that easy to find something that offers consistent profits. You have all kinds of idea but not sure how to test them all, thinking it could take forever plus a day to find the right one. Well there is something called Rapid Prototyping that can help you out. There's a great article written about this and some AFL to go along with it. Here's the info and links to get you started.

Article with a great explanation

Original AFL - You may have to fix line breaks to make this code work

// Rapid Prototyping Method for Trading System Development

// Idea from "The Breakout Bulletin March 2005" by Mike Bryant
// AFL coding by mmike

SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
Cond1 = C-Ref(C,-1);
Cond2 = C-Ref(C,-2);
Cond3 = C-Ref(C,-5);
Cond4 = C-Ref(C,-10);
Cond5 = C-MA(C,5);
Cond6 = C-MA(C,25);
Cond7 = C-MA(C,45);

w1 = Optimize("w1",1,-1,1,1);
w2 = Optimize("w2",-1,-1,1,1);
w3 = Optimize("w3",-1,-1,1,1);
w4 = Optimize("w4",1,-1,1,1);
w5 = Optimize("w5",0,-1,1,1);
w6 = Optimize("w6",0,-1,1,1);
w7 = Optimize("w7",0,-1,1,1);

Buy = w1*Cond1>=0 AND w2*Cond2>=0 AND w3*Cond3>=0 AND w4*Cond4>=0 AND
w5*Cond5>=0 AND w6*Cond6>=0 AND w7*Cond7>=0;
Sell = w1*Cond1<=0 AND w2*Cond2<=0 AND w3*Cond3<=0 AND w4*Cond4<=0 AND
w5*Cond5<=0 AND w6*Cond6<=0 AND w7*Cond7<=0;
Short = Sell;
Cover = Buy;

AFL Code modified by me trying out a TTM system

// Rapid Prototyping Method for Trading System Development

// Idea from "The Breakout Bulletin March 2005" by Mike Bryant
// AFL coding by mmike

SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
Plot( C, "Close", colorBlue, styleNoTitle
styleBar
styleThick );

/* Original test system
Cond1 = C-Ref(C,-1);
Cond2 = C-Ref(C,-2);
Cond3 = C-Ref(C,-5);
Cond4 = C-Ref(C,-10);
Cond5 = C-MA(C,5);
Cond6 = C-MA(C,25);
Cond7 = C-MA(C,45);
*/

// TTM and MA

HaClose = (O+H+L+C)/4;
HaOpen = AMA( Ref( HaClose, -1 ), 0.5 );
HaHigh = Max( H, Max( HaClose, HaOpen ) );
HaLow = Min( L, Min( HaClose, HaOpen ) );
barcolor = IIf(HaClose >= HaOpen, colorBlue, colorRed);

//Plot( C, "Close", BarColor , styleNoTitle
styleBar
styleThick);

TTM = IIf(HaClose >= HaOpen, 1, 0);

Cond1 = TTM;
Cond2 = Ref(TTM,-2);
Cond3 = Ref(TTM,-3);
Cond4 = Ref(TTM,-4);
Cond5 = C>MA(C,5);
Cond6 = C>MA(C,50);
Cond7 = C>MA(C,200);

w1 = Optimize("w1",1,-1,1,1);
w2 = Optimize("w2",-1,-1,1,1);
w3 = Optimize("w3",-1,-1,1,1);
w4 = Optimize("w4",1,-1,1,1);
w5 = Optimize("w5",0,-1,1,1);
w6 = Optimize("w6",0,-1,1,1);
w7 = Optimize("w7",0,-1,1,1);

w1 = -1;
w2 = -1;
w3 = 0;
w4 = -1;
w5 = 1;
w6 = -1;
w7 = -1;

Buy = w1*Cond1>=0 AND w2*Cond2>=0 AND w3*Cond3>=0 AND w4*Cond4>=0 AND
w5*Cond5>=0 AND w6*Cond6>=0 AND w7*Cond7>=0;
Sell = w1*Cond1<=0 AND w2*Cond2<=0 AND w3*Cond3<=0 AND w4*Cond4<=0 AND
w5*Cond5<=0 AND w6*Cond6<=0 AND w7*Cond7<=0;
Short = Sell;
Cover = Buy;

BOJ Intervention

2010-09-15T10:39:00.008-04:00

What happens when a countries bank intervenes on the currency market? This happens...

107 pips in 10 minutes USDJPY

218 pips in 3 hours USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Minute Chart

I was lucky on this one, real lucky. I had an order in on two different pairs and got in right at the bottom of the move.

For this trade, I waited for price to breakout of the down sloping trendline, then placed an order to buy when it returned to the same line. The little arrows on the chart is the pending buy limit order changing with each new bar. Timing is everything? I think it was just luck this time.

This trade was planned days before the event. I watched price approach the trendline and thought about cancelling the order as a move this fast was sure to run out of energy. I quickly looked at the forex calendar for news releases and there was none. Then I checked headlines, BOJ intervention confirmed. I left it to enter and was rewarded.

The red lines on the chart are my stops that were moved up to trail price action. I had to call it a night so I moved it closer. Nice!.

Final result:

EURJPY 229 pips captured

USDJPY 66 pips captured

It doesn't really matter WHY at the moment, trade what you see. This morning I found out WHY. BOJ stuffed 17 billion into the currency market, and really the only currency that moved were the JPY crosses.

Did anyone else make any pips? Let's hear your story.

Tipster Trendlines for MT4

2010-08-27T21:49:00.005-04:00

I've written Tipster Trendlines for MT4 that attempts to model the original version for Amibroker. MT4 doesn't allow many of the features I've implemented in Amibroker but it's a lot less coding too, so that offsets the pain of coding. For example, it is very difficult to place buttons on the chart, so I tried using hot keys, and that didn't work.

I had a hot key to re-draw the lines and enable the lines for trading but that impacted every open chart. So I've adapted a different approach. You can follow my progress on Forex Factory forum, and here.

Some different features are available though;

Close of trade triggers a screenshot and saves it to your hard disk.

Sloping trendlines can be used, the prices are updated with each new bar. This means you can trade breakouts of sloped lines, or touches (stop and limit orders).

If you know how to program MT4, I welcome your comments here or on the forum.

... and I've been using Tipster Trendlines for MT4, the results of my trades are shown on the right side of the blog.

USDJPY

2010-08-27T21:40:00.005-04:00

In the coming weeks I'm going to be following the forex pair USDJPY from a purely technical perspective. It has been said that the government may step in to balance the currency as it approaches the low it set in April 1995. Below is the chart I've marked up with trendlines and the 1995 support zone.

I will be trading two different timeframes, the daily (with the weekly as reference) and the 4 hour. The four hour will attempt to capture small moves. The daily, I'll be looking to enter in the blue zone on a retracement. I'll be using my IB account for the longer term trades and MT4 with my forex broker for the smaller moves.

Tipster Trendlines FAQ

2010-08-14T22:34:00.001-04:00

Just in case you weren't aware, there is a FAQ on Tipster Trendlines.

Here's the link

Tipster Trendlines FAQ

Metatrader Forex Data and back testing

2010-06-27T15:18:00.007-04:00

I finally found a source for free forex data that is complete, and FREE!

Here is the link to the file - Metatrader Free Forex Data

And the recommended set-up to back test your EA on MT4, follow this link

Set up for back test

There are other helpfull articles on that website also. I took a look at the two systems they are offering for sale and they don't fit my style. I like smooth equity curves. One of the systems has a 30% win rate, I like small gains with high win rates.

Tipster Trendlines 3a now available

2010-04-27T21:40:00.004-04:00

The AFL code that allows you to trade right from the Amibroker chart is

now available.

Click the image below to read about it, watch a video, and order.

I recommend you read the Tipster Trendlines FAQ before your order.

Tipster Trendlines 3

2010-04-02T18:00:00.001-04:00

The new version will be available soon. Click the image to read about all the new features. You can place your order today and I'll send the code to you on the release date.

EUR USD TRADE

2010-03-28T01:11:00.012-04:00

Last week I caught a big move and rode it for a nice profit. It was the breakdown of EURUSD below 1.3450 area (support area on the daily chart and also going back to May 2009). Now its getting back to that area (revisiting, support becomes resistance) and I'm considering shorting again. The only thing that looks odd is the speed at which it has re-visited the area. It doesn't look so odd on smaller time frames. With proper risk management and appropriate stop placement this is worth a go since the reward (profit area) is quite far away when looking at the daily chart, 1.2900 area. Here's the chart... as I see it.

Here's the hourly picture. Watch out for early Sunday fake outs, including gap plays.

Market Scan NASDAQ and other US markets

2010-03-28T00:32:00.008-04:00

Here's the same scan from the previous post applied to my US stocks database. I don't typically play US stocks.

Check out the stocks with the NR7, their in pull back mode, I buy on STOP. I look at the intraday 15 minute chart where I have the 5 day MA plotted. The 5 day MA has to be flattening out, then I buy the break out for a swing trade, using a bracket order.

My tool for placing order is Tipster Trendlines. It is an Amibroker AFL for the chart that allows me to draw horizontal lines on the chart and hit the order button, sending the bracket order to TWS (Interactive Brokers trading platform). If your interested in it, the link is at the top of the blog.

Market Scan - TSX

2010-03-27T23:46:00.015-04:00

Here is an example of a scan I'll do when I'm looking for a swing trade on the TSX. The output window is shown below, along with a few stocks that i would consider entering on STOP orders, all are long entries.
The coloumns I generally look at in the output window are;

AlphaLong when the market is in an uptrend
NR7 - scans for narrow range bars in the last 7 bars
Stochastics - below 40 - this just ensure I filter out stocks that have moved already

Behind the scenes in the scan I'm looking at the 5, 20, and 50 SMA, with a price cut off and volume cut off (55 day average volume more than 200K)

On the chart, the arrows are coloured, the legend is at the top of the chart. Notice the NR7 arrows....

I use Tipster Trendlines AFL code for Amibroker to place my trades. It's a great tool to place the trade right from the Amibroker chart. Interactive Brokers is who I use.

Tipster Trendlines - Version 3 beta

2010-03-13T00:08:00.006-05:00

The new code is in beta testing.

The goal of the new code is to never have to see TWS again!

New features include;

Ability to easily see if your in a position or not
One order button instead of a seperate Long and Short button
Shows if an order is placed and not filled
Ability to modify the order after it's placed, from the chart
If you place an order and re-boot, the chart can still be used to modify the bracket if the order is still open (great for swing trading)
Turn bracket on or off so you can use any combination of the order with a stop or target
Colours have been modified to make it easier on the eyes
Price plot is set to your default so you are free to change it from the preferences menu

Anyone that has previously purchased earlier versions will be sent the code via email once it is ready.

Bracket Trader Stats

2010-02-13T00:39:00.002-05:00

Here is a handy tool if you use Bracket Trader (BT). This excel file will extract information from your BT log files to give you trading stats. Take a look at thew different stats it tracks.

Bracket Trader Spreadsheet

The instructions are good, so no need for me to explain how to use it.

A free e-book

2010-01-17T10:45:00.005-05:00

... after reading the title of this post you're probably thinking that I made an e-boook and I'm giving it away for free. Not. Maybe one day. I want to give you another hint on finding books.

Earlier I wrote about finding free e-books using Google "Free ebook for everyone - how to find free books online". Go to that post and read the instructions, and become familiar with Googles advanced search.

A while back I read this post by RiskAddict "Example Trading System" and went to the link he provided to download the e-book. It wouldn't let me get the book, something about maximum limit reached. So I went up to the Google tool bar and typed in "book" and selected "search site" from the Google drop down menu. From there I browsed through the hits and selected the PDF.

Here is the link that Google spit out, download the PDF while it's still there - How to develop a futures trading system ebook

10 tips from the website with the book;

Do not feel compelled to always have a trade on or to trade everyday. Capital preservation is the key to successful trading and sometimes that just means waiting when the odds are not in your favour. Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting." Jesse Livermore
Develop your own proven trading system - accept that losing trades will be part of that system.
Do not let

fear and greed influence your trading decisions.

Trading is a business, be strategic and logical.

Learn something new everyday that will help to maintain or increase your edge.

Keep a trading journal and review why your actual trades vary from your trading plan.

Do not fight the market, it's easier to run with the wind than against it.

Always trade with a stop loss and never move that stop further away or remove it completely. Do not allow a day trade to become a long term investment.

Become an expert, know your market inside out. Be it options, futures or an individual stock - you should strive to become the World authority in it!

The market will rarely do what it 'should' be doing. Instead focus on what it is doing.

Playback to Bracket Trader

2010-01-13T22:00:00.005-05:00

There are two ways to backtest that I know of using Amibroker;
Use the backtester
use the playback feature

Backtester - This requires some coding, coding that isn't required when trading live with Amibroker, Bracket Trader, and TWS. You have to watch out for a whole basket of different issues that can creep into the test. It remains a valuable tool.

Playback simulation - This is a great tool for practicing discretionary trading. It's also a great tool for testing your Bracket trader (BT) interface / system. If it would just work! I searched high and low and the net for some information on how to do this, or code that I could simply drop into Ami that would "make it happen". The good news is that I've finally got it to work, and surprisingly it wasn't to difficult to code, but getting the bug out was an issue.

Ive used it to test several days of 1 minute HSI system with BT to get the stats from it. The last thing I just completed tonight was exiting positions near the close. Still a few issues to work out with that. Still, the most difficult part is finding a system that generates a profit, I'm looking for a winning ratio of 40% or better.

Is anyone else using Amibroker playback in this fashion?

I was contemplating doing a video on this and posting the code. Not sure I want to spend the time to do it though.

HSI System

2009-12-01T17:50:00.017-05:00

I'd like to start by saying that the formatting of the text doesn't work very well, and I don't feel like sitting here screwing around with formatting.

Since the last post I've been working on a trading system aimed specifically at the Hang Seng HSI trading on the Hong Long exchange. While developing the signals and code to support the trading system I've also discretionary traded MHI, the mini version of HSI. In addition I've been chatting with Steve from California and Mr RiskAddict from Japan, as you can see in the chat window on the right. If you're interested in autotrading I suggest you visit Mr. Addict's blog. BTW, Mr Addict mentioned this trading system file, and I think you should read it.

My AFL code is organized into blocks like this;

Filters - setting available in the params window

allowable trading times
shorting and buying switches to allow me to turn ON/OFF shorting or buying

Backtest parameters including a ON/OFF switch in the params window

Systems

This is blocks of code that are the sub-systems that make up the entire system of auto trading code. In the params window I have the ability to turn the sub-systems ON/OFF as well as set the order type for each system individually. See screen shot below.

Plot

This code lets me turn ON/OFF the plotting of the signals and some moving averages.

Test

Code that allows an instant order to be sent out as well as a test for writing a cancel order to Bracket Trader (BT)

Bracket Trader Code block for writing the text file that BT reads. I just purchased BT, allowing me to add my own symbols and change the audio alerts.

Backtest plot and code

This chunk of code allows the plotting of backtest results and simulates scaling out with an initial order of 3 cars (contracts). The plotting code tells me why the position was exited, it shows different shapedigits depending on things like stopped out, trail hit, profit target, etc.

Title code

Debug code

Sends specific into to DebugView

The System

The actual "system" consists of a bunch of sub-systems which I'll explain briefly. Here's an interesting wrinkle though - if System 1 buys and has hit 2 targets and is trailing the 3rd car, then system 2 shorts, the short is ignored. Signals are only taken once I'm flat. I call this letting the profits run and I'm OK with that because I do get wrong signals.

The system buys 3 cars, has an initial stop, 3 separate targets and a trailing stop. Here is how it works for now, subject to change without notice;

Buy 3 cars

set initial stop at 15

1st target at 10

2nd target at 20

3rd target at 50

move stop to BE at 1st target

trail at 2nd target

While I've been watching this system fire off signals and debugging it in the fly it's been profitable on simulation but I don't trust it just yet (profitable doesn't count the buggy entry's at market when it shouldn't have fired off a signal but did). I still need to do a successful backtest. I have backtested but haven't been happy with the code result of scaling out, needs some work. I also need some data and I'm working on obtaining that. So far it all looks promising. If the system turns out to be 'not so good', I'll have code that I can simply insert another system, or add to it.

I am considering manually firing BT based on the codes, I'll try that on sim, I don't think I can match the speed of the auto system though, even with BT at my fingertips.

Sub-Systems
A brief description of each;

1 Find a trend and jump in

2 Find a channel, or a cycle, and jump in

3 Find the momentum and go the other way - fade it

4 Find a MA that has reverses and jump in

5 Find two indicators going the same way and jump in

Each one of the above has it's own set of filters, for example, #4 doesn't just blindly jump in, it looks for some other stuff.

I don't know if this post will help anyone, that isn't my intent. I needed to write it down to better digest it. If it helps you, great.

HSI / MHI Hang Seng

2009-10-30T22:58:00.005-04:00

I've been searching the web for blog posts and forums to gain insight into the HSI. It seems some of the comments are dated. If you trade this I'd appreciate any feedback or information you can offer (what doesn't work, what works) from your experience. Here is what I have learned thus far;

It's technical intraday chart looks very technical and normal, the daily looks like its on crack, gapping all over the place. The opening gap break out seems to work well, gap and run. I've been using the first 5 to 8 minutes to gauge the direction and strength. Then I bottom fish and take the breakout for my position and let it ride. Last night worked perfect, huge gains, sold when the upwards trend line broke.

I also only trade the "morning session" up to about midnight EST, then its bedtime. The "afternoon session" seems to have a mind of its own, like a different day.

The first half of the morning session moves and trends, the second half can be choppy, the range (ATR) increases too. Just before each session closes the price goes nuts.

I've read that the market is heavily manipulated by technical traders? I'm not sure what that means, it looks like it has some structure on the 1 minute time frame.

Questions for you if you trade this;

What is your daily target (in points or dollars)
What is your daily loss limit?
Do you trade specific time of the market?
Do fibs work? I have noticed they work somewhat, good gauge of a pullback but I generally don't count on them.
Do pivot points work? My guess is not since the gaps are huge, perhaps weekly pivots?

So far the P/L is floating in the black a little above break even and that's OK with me. Since I'm new to the Asian market, I need to learn it before going to bigger positions.
Any input would be helpful for me as I am building my strategy and plan for trading this puppy.

I also open up the chat room just before the market opens, its been quiet. Anyone know of any chat rooms for the Asian market?

VWAP

2009-10-27T23:24:00.010-04:00

Definition

"Volume Weighted Average Price. A measure of the price at which the majority of a given day's trading in a given security took place. Calculated by taking the weighted average of the prices of each trade. The method is used by institutional traders, who often break a given trade into multiple transactions."

Another definition

The VWAP for a stock is calculated by adding the dollars traded for every transaction in that stock ("price" x "number of shares traded") and dividing the total shares traded. A VWAP is computed from the Open of the market to the market Close, AND is calculated by Volume weighting all transactions during this time period.

VWAP, or Volume Weighted Average Price is a tool used by some traders, I first learned of it from Brian Shannon who trades stocks. This won't work for forex since there is no volume.

There are a few different ways of displaying this in Amibroker. It can be a simple line like a moving average, this is the most common way pro's use it. Amibroker has a function to display it behind price, look in the help for these two functions with examples;

PlotVAPOverlayA
PlotVAPOverlay

Here are a few ways tp lot it and some code to try out.

eTokes Blog post on VWAP
I suggest reading his post, as well as Brian's post on VWAP, links below. eToke used a vertical "study" line drawn on the chart. This might give you an error on your chart if there is no line drawn. Here is his code with a little fix for this problem (adding "Nz");

Plot VWAP starting at a horizontal study line (Study ID set to ST)

//VWAP since last change in sentiment
TurningPoint = IIf(Nz(Study(“ST”,GetChartID())==0,1,0));
BarsSinceLastTurn = 1 + BarsSince(TurningPoint==1);
StartBar = ValueWhen(TurningPoint==1, BarIndex());
RunVolume = Sum(V,BarsSinceLastTurn);
IIf (BarIndex() >= StartBar, MTVWAP = Sum (C * V, BarsSinceLastTurn ) / RunVolume,0);
Plot (MTVWAP,”MTVWAP”,colorPink, styleLine);

Other ways to plot VWAP

Plot VWAP starting at selector line

This is another way, it will display the VWAP starting from where your selector line is placed. I use it for short term trading to see where all the volume is, makes finding support / resistance a bit easier when working with breakout.

_SECTION_BEGIN("Selector Line VAP");
segments = IIf(SelectedValue(BarIndex()) == BarIndex(), 1, 0);
PlotVAPOverlayA( segments , 300, 50, ParamColor("Color", colorDarkGrey ), 6 );
_SECTION_END();

Plotted like a moving average

_SECTION_BEGIN("VWAP");
Bars_so_far_today = 1 + BarsSince( Day() != Ref(Day(), -1));
StartBar = ValueWhen(TimeNum() == 093000, BarIndex());
TodayVolume = Sum(V,Bars_so_far_today);
IIf (BarIndex() >= StartBar, VWAP = Sum (C * V, Bars_so_far_today ) / TodayVolume,0);
Plot (VWAP,"VWAP",colorOrange, styleThick);
_SECTION_END();

Other links on VWAP
VWAP link 1
VWAP link 2

Chat Room

2009-10-20T22:04:00.009-04:00

Most nights I'm trading EURUSD or HSI (mini Hang Seng). Tonight I'm in the chat room mentioned in an earlier post. Join me if you like. Tonight I'm looking at HSI. IB symbol for Amibroker is MHIV9-HKFE-FUT-HKD

CHATROOM

I was contemplating using twitter as a chat medium but I haven't explored it much or used it. Stocktwits is also a possibility but again I don't know much about it. Any comments on it's use compared to a chat room would be beneficial. Also, are any readers interested in chatting in the evening?

EURUSD

2009-10-18T12:52:00.023-04:00

The last post on EURUSD talked about some basics and a short update as price was playing with the trend line. I am currently long and I plan on holding for the ride.

WEEKLY CHART From the weekly chart we can clearly see that price has entered an "air" zone, there is no meaningful resistance on the way up to the top of the yellow box.

Daily Chart - Long History The last time price had to overcome resistance it popped through the orange trend line on the third attempt (yellow circle). Price followed the upward red trend line and is still following it. More on this line later on.... We just broke the blue trend line, and as it happens, on the third attempt just like the prior break. No we are into the yellow free air space.

Daily Chart - Closeup Price just broke through the blue horizontal trend line, on the third attempt, same as the last horizontal trend line break. The pullback after the breakout above the orange horizontal trend line came to the upwards trend line and the 50% retracement. Note that it did not come back to the orange trend line, indicating a strong upward trend following the red line. Keep this in mind when looking to enter on the recent break.

Intraday The yellow area is the S/R "zone" from the weekly chart. It looks like we are clear for now. A good area to place a but LMT order would be at 1.4790 to 1.4844 for a low risk opportunity.

What's next?

Breaking the upward red trend line - This would only mean that the rate of increase or rise in price has slowed. Once it breaks through, look for it to come back to it and test it, then fall. No telling when this line will break.

Pullback - look for a pull back to the upward red trend line or the blue horizontal trend line. The best choice might be whichever one of those area also lines up with a fib level and a round number. I might even load up more on a pull back.

Be patient and wait for the pullback. If you need some help with pull backs watch this Pullback Video.

Do you have a position right now? Are you planning on geting in on this move?

HSI - Mini Hang Seng, and the big brother MHI

2009-10-12T14:59:00.034-04:00

I live near Toronto, eastern time zone, I work during the day (not in the finance or trading field). I have free time after dinner and do some short term trading. Forex doesn't do much from 7pm to midnight unless you want to play ranges and scalp. Scalping doesn't work for me. I was looking to trade something that moves a little less choppy, has some liquidity, shows the volume, and can be traded technically. From my research which includes reading forums and blogs I have found the Asian markets are a good place for that. I'm taking trades at night on the mini Hang Seng futures (HSI).

Other contracts I have looked at include the following;

SPI - S&P/ASX 200 Index (Australia) APZ9-SNFE-FUT-AUD

mini Hang Seng Stock Index (MHI) MHIV9-HKFE-FUT-HKD

MSCI Taiwan Index @ SGX TWV09-SGX-FUT-USD

Be sure to adjust the symbol for the correct contract expiry before trading.

Of the above, I have chosen to concentrate on MHI. Here is the chart so far tonight, 1 minute time frame over several days. As you can see it trends nicely and has the odd gap fill. Trading shuts down for lunch time in Asia and when the come back there can be huge swings in the opening price, so trade small. I typically trade 1 or 2 contracts, depending on the set up. Right now the P/L is up and down, I'm learning the instrument and as long as I stay afloat and break even over the week I'm generally happy for now.

Intraday - HSI

Daily Chart - HSI

UPDATE:

Mr. Addict blogs about his experience with trading this instrument, both discretionary and Auto trading. Very interesting read and to me, his blog shows that he checks his results, indicating a high level of interest in success. This is something I lack (the checking results part) but I'm working on keeping the trade journal up to date. I'm going to use another approach and use AFL to import my IB TWS generated trade log and plot the trades. Then my notes will make sense. Keeping a spreadsheet doesn't appeal to me, it to slow, I prefer scratching notes.

Mr. Addict contributed a very valuable comment for those that trade MHI or HSI and use IB as their broker. Here is his comment, I've inserted the approximate USD equivalent values beside the HKD value so you can easily relate.

Addict said...

Why don't you try the full size contract, i.e., HSI instead of MHI? The bundled commish on MHI is 34 HKD (4.38 USD) per round trip and it's worth 10 HKD (1.29 USD) per tick. So price has to move four ticks in your favor to break even.

With HSI, the commish is 60 HKD (7.74 USD) per round trip, but each tick is worth 50 HKD (6.45 USD). So price only has to move two ticks in your favor to at least break even.

Better yet, go unbundled and you pay only 20.30 HKD (2.61 USD) per round trip for trading HSI, and 13.16 HKD (1.69 USD) for MHI. With unbundled, you need only one tick movement in your favor to break even with HSI, and three ticks with MHI.

EURUSD

2009-10-12T14:48:00.007-04:00

UPDATE
Looks like a false breakout to me. It could also be a shakeout but I dont think a shakeout is that easy in forex and given this is a well watched trandl ine, there are too many participants at this level to do that.

Original Post
I was looking at the EURUSD chart today, deciding how to play pair as it nears long term S/R. My son came into the room and asked me what I was doing. I explained the bar chart and told him that we could make lots of money if our prediction was right. I asked what he thought the chart would do, first taking no more than one minute to show him how prices bounces off previous S/R levels, showing him the trend lines and S/R lines I drew. His 30 second view into the future is attached below and I have to tell you, its as valid as any other.

I'm playing this as a breakout for one reason only, this level has acted as resistance four times already and there is upward pressure from a very long trend line. There are three outcomes I see in the next week or so;

1: Breakout and huge move to the upside because of the long term nature of the two trend lines.
2: Breakout and a failure within a few days, price will move back below the 1.4821 area in a classic 2B move and then tank over multiple weeks if not longer.
3: Price will bounce off this area and head lower, below the uptrend line, then we are moving sideways. until a low is broken.

BTW - I have used Tipster Trendlines to place my trades. Check out this AFL for Amibroker for placing error free trades. "Error free" refers to the task of placing the trade, it does NOT refer to a trading system. the AFL also offers a risk management tool.

In short - this is a great place to watch price and place a trade. In other words, don't waste your time trading in between S/R lines on your chosen time frame.

Not sure about the long term, I'm focusing on the weeks ahead. Just for kicks, I'm posting what a 9 year old boy thinks of this market.

Forex Volume

2009-09-06T21:55:00.004-04:00

If you have traded forex for more than a day you will now that there is no volume data since there is no central exchange. There are ways to guess at volume, which by the way will help you even though its an approximation. Since trading isn't an exact science, any data for volume is better than no data. When volume is read on a chart, say for stocks, we look for increasing or decreasing levels, or a spike on a breakout, and not a particular number.... only comparisons.

Forex data can be derived from tick data. I use this right now, the number of price changes from the IB data stream is counted and added until the bar closes, the afl uses the ibc.getrealtimedata function.

You could also use forex futures volume data, Amibroker will let you do this easily, but the market hours aren't the same from what I understand. I've never looked into this, so don't consider this as fact.

I ran across a site where forex futures data is taken from the CME website reports that are posted and available via ftp. The website is call evolution. I read some post at forex factory and it seems the site has been up for a couple of years. There doesn't seem to be a huge following, (which is good if you ask me).

I'll be taking a closer look at the max volume levels for the past week and keep an eye on them. Use this with your support and resistance and we will probably find more clues to where the next bounce will happen.

Take a look and leave a comment here on the site, as well as your thoughts on forex volume.

Code Snippet - EOD Data

2009-09-05T00:33:00.004-04:00

On the weekends many traders are looking over charts, some only do it on the weekends. They might place orders based on the charts they view. No matter what type of order you use, if you are using daily data, you may have noticed that sometimes you don't get all the current data for every symbol. Murphy's law says that the stock you interested in will be the one that is missing one days worth of quotes. A couple of times I have almost placed an order based on old data, but noticed something wasn't right when I logged into the trading software and noticed the last price was different. I wrote this piece of code to show up in the title when the last daily bar isn't the same as today's day. The code also considers Saturday and Sunday.

DownloadDate = LastValue(DateNum());
TodayDate = Now(3);
if(Now(9)== 7) DownloadDate = DownloadDate + 1;
if(Now(9)== 0) DownloadDate = DownloadDate + 2;
if(LastValue(DownloadDate) != TodayDate)
BarDateError = " *WARNING: Data NOT Current*";
else
BarDateError ="";

My title bar uses this code, which is where the value BarDateError is displayed.

Title = EncodeColor(colorLightBlue) + Name() + " " + FullName() +
EncodeColor(colorLightBlue) + " - " + Date() +
EncodeColor(colorBlue) + " O=" + O +
EncodeColor(colorLime) + " H=" + H +
EncodeColor(colorRed) +" L=" + L +
EncodeColor(colorBlue) + " C=" + C +
EncodeColor(colorYellow) + " ATR: " + Prec(ATR(6),4) + EncodeColor(colorWhite) +
" " + BarDateError;

Hope this helps you reduce errors, trading is hard enough without having to deal with oversights.

Chat Room

2009-08-06T17:48:00.003-04:00

I get email from time to time and have found it frustrating and difficult to solve a problem or have a healthy discussion via email. I've added a link to a chat room where we can have a discussion. If you want to chat about whatever, put a comment up on one of the posts and suggest a time. I'd like to chat about using Bracket Trader, or the advantages of using MetaTrader over Amibroker with IB (I know there are issues with that set up)

Look at the side bar on the right there is a title "Forex Hit List". I've added a link to a chat room.

Tipster Trendlines 2.12

2009-08-05T19:10:00.008-04:00

Tipster Trendlines UPDATE HERE

Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information on how to obtain this AFL code. Don't make any more manual entry mistakes!

In addition, you may want to check the "Tipster Trendlines" TAGS on the the right of the blog to see all post about this code (or click this link).

Another update to the AFL, Tipster Trendlines, for trading right from the Amibroker chart. Here are the two additions;

Description (code follows below)

1. This addition will add "seconds remaining in bar" to the title of the chart. Good for intraday trading.

2. This addition will tell you if the last daily bar has the same date as today. Have you ever downloaded your EOD data and placed orders based on old data, assuming that you have the latest quotes? This won't prevent that but it will show a warning in the title of the chart so you have a chance!AFL CODE
Put this code at the top of the AFL, right after SetChartOptions(0,chartShowArrowschartShowDateschartWrapTitle); function secondsLeftOnBar_func()
{
Time = Now( 4 );
Seconds = int( Time % 100 );
Minutes = int( Time / 100 % 100 );
Hours = int( Time / 10000 % 100 );
SecondNum = int( Hours * 60 * 60 + Minutes * 60 + Seconds );
TimeFrame = Interval();
Newperiod = SecondNum % TimeFrame == 0;
SecsLeft = SecondNum - int( SecondNum / TimeFrame ) * TimeFrame;
SecsToGo = TimeFrame - SecsLeft;
return SecsToGo;
}

Replace the Ttle section at the bottom with this code
//Check if daily data is from today
DownloadDate = LastValue(DateNum());
TodayDate = Now(3);
if(LastValue(DownloadDate) != TodayDate)
BarDateError = " *WARNING: Data NOT Current*";
else
BarDateError ="";

Title = EncodeColor(colorLightBlue) + Name() + " " + FullName() +
EncodeColor(colorLightBlue) + " - " + Date() +
EncodeColor(colorBlue) + " O=" + O +
EncodeColor(colorLime) + " H=" + H +
EncodeColor(colorRed) +" L=" + L +
EncodeColor(colorBlue) + " C=" + C +
EncodeColor(colorYellow) + " ATR: " + Prec(ATR(6),4) +
EncodeColor(colorDarkYellow) + " Seconds Remaining: " + secondsLeftOnBar_func() +
EncodeColor(colorWhite) + BarDateError;
_SECTION_END();
Enjoy!

Tipster Trendlines 2.11

2009-08-02T11:30:00.014-04:00

This page is out of date, click "Tipster Trendlines" at the top of the page.

Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information on how to obtain this AFL code. Don't make any more manual entry mistakes!

Several readers have donated and received the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 (TT) AFL. A few things have come up, and I want to share the questions and code fixes.

CODE FIX
This fixes an issue where TWS rejects the submitted prices when TT is set for "Futures" trading.
Search for the red text below using the find box and replace with the code below. The NEW code is in blue. If you can't figure this out, let me know by comment or email.

if(Length == "0")
{
BS = int( BS ); // this truncates whatever is after the decimal
TA = int( TA );
ST = int( ST );
IBTarget = NumToStr( TA, 1.0, 0);
IBOrder = NumToStr( BS, 1.0, 0);
IBStop = NumToStr( ST, 1.0, 0);
}
VISTA

Microsoft VISTA continues to be a problem for Amibroker. The Interpretation window should be closed according to Ami support. The issue has not been resolved at this time, stay tuned in the Yahoo Amibroker groups. The reports I am receiving indicate the the TT screen "flashes" when Auto Trading is turned on.

Here is some code added by Rick. This code flashes the screen at the start and end of the trading day. Adjust the time as required:

Plot(TimeNum() == 092959, "",colorPaleGreen,styleHistogramstyleDashedstyleOwnScalestyleNoLabel);
Plot(TimeNum() == 155959, "",colorRed,styleHistogramstyleDashedstyleOwnScalestyleNoLabel);
(In Preferences - Intraday, "Time stamp of compressed intraday bars shows - "END time of interval")

Questions and answers

Q1. can make change to stop loss and target profit or not so that I can move my stop loss/target after the trade is entered.

A1. No. Once the order is placed and not filled, cancel and re-do in Amibroker. Once the order is placed and filled, move stops and targets in TWS.

Q2. Also if I used stop + limited price to enter trade, the trade may or may not be able to be filled. Can we see the trade has been filled in the status of Amibroker panel or not without going to IB pages?

A2. No. This is possible but I have not coded it. I had that feature in an earlier version.

Other Issues
Lastly, I would appreciate any feedback on this code posted as comments so other potential users can see the value. If current users have any suggestions, of issues with the AFL please let me know and we will remedy.

Auto Trading UPDATE

2009-07-29T21:13:00.002-04:00

I have been using Bracket Trader lately. Great little program. I also just changed computers and noticed it doesn't run very well. I had to turn off my real time virus scanner. I'll have to figure out what files are running and add them to exceptions for the scanner.

The AFL I'm working on actually combines several systems that can be turn on and off with the params window. The time of day to allow trades can also be adjusted.

I send an email alert to me handheld so I'll be able to log on and check that the stops and targets have been placed, then just let it go. It's running on the TWS simulated account right now, making play $$.

Questrade

2009-07-29T21:08:00.002-04:00

I just opened an account at Questrade. The experience was painless and prompt. I noticed one thing very quickly about their platform, that I usually research before hand.... not this time!! Where are the stops? I can't set a bracket order!!

Apparently the TSX doesn't allow stops unless they are stop limit orders. Questrade has something called VTSO, not exactly sure how it works yet. I do know that without stops, trading is riskier. IB offers stops on the TSX, probably simulated in their system. I'll have to do more research. Feel free to offer what you know if you're reading this.

Bracket Trader

2009-06-17T13:12:00.003-04:00

Bracket Trader (BT) communicate directly with TWS. You can trade right from BT, or have an external app send signals to BT.

I've installed Bracket Trader and tried it with my IB simulated account. So far, so good. I like this set-up because I only have to generate signals and sent them to a text file. BT looks at the text file for orders and executes. BT has some nice features, trailing stops, multiple targets, etc. It's worth looking at. The main reason I like it is I don't have to code the scale out or order management part of the trade.

I'm setting Amibroker up to send LMT orders. If they don't trigger within a few bars then I cancel the order.

Has anyone else played with this application? I would like to hear about your experience. Once I get this working I'll post some AFL code to interface to BT, and I hope you will participate.

USDCAD - Trade update

2009-06-02T07:57:00.005-04:00

I closed my open short position on USDCAD the other day. I guess I didn't think that price would go as far as the completely obvious support level, shown below in red. The area between the two blue lines is void of any support/resistance.

I netted 461 pips on the trade.

Looking at the chart, you can see more totally obvious S/R levels. How about 1.3000? Two times it bounced off that level. See how the price looks sharp, quick up, quick down the first time it hits 1.3000? This tells us it's an important level. I missed both opportunities.

So whats next for this pair? If it blows past the red support line it should continue to the next red line. On the other hand, if it bounces off this red line it could move up to the top blue line.

I'll be ready.

USDCAD - Look out below!

2009-05-21T19:20:00.013-04:00

I've entered a short position in USDCAD. Why? Why not. The pair is at a major support level, a daily support level. I entered a few days ago, so I'm in profit and waiting to see what happens, and the best part is that I'm giving the market lots of room to move around, waiting for the decline.

Here are my previous thoughts on this pair, and where it would go

USDCAD Post 1

USDCAD Post 2

Notice on March 9, 2009 how the pair did penetrate the 1.3000 level and faked out breakout traders. Didn't I mention using a tight stop in an earlier post? I hope you didn't get caught on that one.

As I stated in an earlier post, I think the run up was due to the need for USD. Hedge funds had big clients who wanted out of the market, they could see the domino's falling after October of last year. To cash these guys out, the holding needed to be liquidated to some extent, including holding on non-USA markets. When they liquidate those holdings, the currency must be changed back to USD, so that drives up the price. There are clearly more forces at work than this, but I like the simple approach, all I need is in the price. And as I also stated before, understanding why something is happening is the downfall of many traders. You will know why many months later.

Credit Crisis and PUT option
If you do some creative searching on Google, you will find that there were those that shorted the market using PUT options before the credit crisis was public. Click on the link above to get started. So here is what I'm saying, you might have noticed this happening, and allot of traders did. How many acted? Notice the forum article, the writer is trying to figure out why? Who gives a rats ass why. Keep that in the back of your mind, like a dart in your back pocket, take it out when you need it. If you saw the market take a shit kicking like it did on November 8, 2008, you might have thought to wait a few days for a bounce, and pick up some PUTs. Or, you might have not because you wanted to know WHY? and didn't make a killing like the traders who sunk billions into PUTs. So, why ask why?

Looking at the charts below, notice on September 8, 2008 the USDCAD started to rally. Is this the impact of liquidating large amount of holdings? The pair tops out on October 28, 2008. So what do you think about that? At the time you would be asking yourself, why is it running like that? Stop asking, and make the trade. Even the hammerheads on CNN, BNN, and all the rest don't know what is going on. If they did, it would news.

Back to the USDCAD. It doesn't matter why it went up so fast. All I know is that the chart is telling me to short it. Be careful, manage risk, keep your capitol for another day if you are wrong. But if it cracks this support line, where is the next support? Keep looking down.

The other possibility of course is that it bounces a little and stays in this channel for the next 80 years. I'm playing the decline.

Here are the charts. Notice the daily support level at 1.1463 TO 1.1350.

Above = Daily chart

Below = Hourly chart

Tipster Trendlines v2.1

2009-04-19T11:20:00.002-04:00

This page is out of date, click "Tipster Trendlines" at the top of the page.

Trade directly from your Amibroker charts. This AFL code allows you to draw three lines on the Amibroker chart and place an error free trade. You must have Amibroker 5 or better, IBController (from Amibroker website), Trader WorkStation (TWS) and an Interactive Brokers (IB) account. I have not posted the code at this time, but for a small $20 donation I will send it to you.

Tipster Trendlines v2.1 from Another Brian on Vimeo.

Trading Rules

2009-04-14T21:30:00.001-04:00

I got these "rules" off another site, same old stuff.... throw up a few rules, make them general, hopefully the reader will buy the course they are selling.

Here it is:

Forex trading is really just about buying support and selling resistance. It's easier said than done, but here are some easy rules to follow:

Buy low sell high [ya, OK.]

Do not assume support and resistance even if there is precedence; let candlesticks indicate market sentiment at anticipated levels and act accordingly. When in doubt, let the market test and retest price levels. [and then what do I do?... I watch smaller time frames, sometimes a tick chart....but that if I'm trading off the H1 or H4.]

Apply a moving average as a simple visual way of indicating trend then buy support or sell resistance in favour of the trend [and what time frame are we talking about here? And what moving average period? How about just using higher highs and lower lows? Works for me.]

Retail speculators often get the big picture right but get killed by volatility at the lower time frames; increases chances of success by following the big picture more and this is really about 15 minutes or higher. [I agree with this, just ask Ryan O'Keefe!]

To sum it up, play with the trend, follow the big picture and apply wider stops that are more tolerant. That will really save you from a lot of nasty whipsaws but you will get it right when price reverts to the mean. In terms of strategy, nothing beats a simple one so you can get it right even if you wake up on the wrong side of bed. [I agree with this to, but it's general and doesn't really help a new trader]

Anyone have any comments on these so called "rules" that are more guidelines than anything....

Tipster Trendlines - version 2.1

2009-04-11T17:45:00.004-04:00

This page is out of date, click "Tipster Trendlines" at the top of the page.

The "free" version is no longer available. Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information.I've modified the code for my Amibroker interface to Interactive Brokers (IB) Trader Workstation (TWS). All the functionality is now on one pane.

The user puts three horizontal lines on the chart called "BS", "TA", and "ST". Bracket orders can be placed and the code will check to ensure the bracket is correctly setup. You can also disable this bracket order feature and place only a "BS" (Buy Short) with or without a stop or target.

The Risk display is only an approximation for forex, and I have not tested it for futures.

The menu's are all drop down now. Here are some sample screen shots. I'll make a video when IB is online, their server are shut down until Sunday evening.

Better Video

2009-04-10T17:45:00.005-04:00

I just signed up with Vimeo and uploaded version 1 of the Tipster Trendlines video. I think this site is better for this video since you can watch full screen and the quality is better.

Tipster Trendlines v1 - Amibroker and IB from Another Brian on Vimeo.

Finviz

2009-03-31T17:00:00.002-04:00

If you trade stocks there is a website worth looking at. The only thing wrong with it is that it doesn't include Candian stocks. Take a look at this video tutorial of the site. I'll be using it to find sectors and groups that are leading the charge for the next bull. Conglomerates have had a great run over the past few weeks on this strong surge of buying. Lets see if the pull back is lighter compared to the other sectors and groups. Once I find the sector or group I'll look in the same place on the Canadian market. This is for the RRSP (retirement fund in Canada), a long term approach. I'm in one bank stock and one enrgey stock right now with a bunch of cash, sitting and waiting.

On to the video, if it asks for a password -> finviz

Another short tutorial about BigCharts.

Other blogs worthy of mention

2009-03-29T19:00:00.001-04:00

I find it takes so much time to read and digest information available on the net to find the sites that are actually worth while to visit on a regular basis. Here are some sites that I visit that offer more than just hype.

MACD High Probability Trades - I noticed that MACD High Probability Trades has taken to forex. He has switched his trading from stocks to forex, stating that forex is the new thing. I look forward to reading his blog posts related to forex.

DailyFX - FXCM's news, analysis and signals web site. Pretty good but I prefer the forexfactory calendar for news releases. It's on the sidebar of the blog.

ForexProject - Not sure what happened to Rich. Last word he got a new job. I think he should spend less time making websites and more time trading. His web sites are great though!

Alphatrends - Eben though this is related to forex, I watch his daily videos and I've read his book. Price action is all you need. Watch a (single) tick chart when price is near support/resistance and you'll see what I mean.

TradeTheMarkets - The free videos are helpfull. Although I have never paid these guys anything, there site is worth a mention. I signed up for the free videos. Here is a nice one - the them is - when daytraing, only take trades in the direction of the trend (60 min trend in this case).

Ryan has been helpful - If you cant daytrade forex, then swing trade it. Read this guys blogs to figure it out. He has two blogs, his own and one on fxstreet

USDCAD Poll

2009-03-28T23:11:00.009-04:00

Previously I have posted my thoughts on USDCAD forex pair.

First USDCAD Post
Second USDCAD Post

Shown below is the recent chart. Using all your skills, vote on which level you think will be breached first, the 1.3000 zone or the 1.1800 zone.

Vote on the poll - it's located at the top right side of the blog. Also, feel free to say your piece on the pair, commenting on this post.

Breakthrough

2009-03-28T12:56:00.010-04:00

It's been a while since I posted. Here's what I've been doing, and not doing....

I haven't been working a whole lot on the updated version of Tipster Trendlines but it is close. I sent the code to a reader (David) who is testing it. David had some good ideas to improve the flexibility of the code. For example, the ability to submit a bracket order, or just a buy/sell order, or a buy/sell with a stop. Also, the menu's have changed with everything on a single pane.

Since the beginning of the year I thought I'd concentrate more on actually trading than coding trading systems reading/writing blog posts, and actually gain more experience trading every day.

Also over the past few months my frustration with IB's data feed has grown so I decided to try another broker for forex trading while still not closing the IB account. My issue here is that you cant get tick data. If I use another feed to Amibroker and IB to trade forex the two may not jive enough to scalp and/or place my stops. So I think we are kind of stuck with IB's crappy data feed.

I've opened a new account with MFGlobalFX to trade forex. I think they are an affiliate of FXCM since I can log onto the dailyFX website for news and signals (more on that later).

Their simple little platform is really all I need, I found to my surprise. I plot a few MA's and display a daily, H4, H1, M1, and tick chart to trade. Once I figured out what I wanted to see and what indy's I wanted to on my screen, trading was more simplistic. I only use price, MA's, slow Stochastic, and a table of ATR values. The platform is FXTradingStation by CandleWorks, does anyone else use this? The indicators are written in a language called LUA. I'm not about to dive into another language to port some indicators. So back it is to Amibroker. How do I get this new brokers data into Amibroker? ... more on that later....

Using this little platform made me think a little after I has some successful trades. Amibroker allows us to over complicate things. This simplistic approach helped me get my head around the trading plan that I needed to simplify. My plan was more than 10 pages and I really wanted a 2 pager, something I would memorise without even knowing it, something short. Also during that time I listened to a TraderInterview. This particular trader made up a simple "table", I call it a matrix, of his set-ups. He would detail the set-up for the applicable time frame and how to initiate a trade and possible profit targets. It is well known that a trader needs a few set-ups to draw from in order to flatten the equity curve, and this is a good visual tool to do that. This trader also scored the set-ups for each trade, promoting good set-ups and "firing" the under performers. Promoting just refers to increasing position size for the set-up. So this was my road map to simply my trade plan and my charts.

Back to the new forex account.... After I opened the account, I tried trading on the demo to figure out the platform. Easy stuff. Trade right from the charts. Then I went back to IB's TraderWorkstation and tried demo trading from the chart trader. Again, this was easy but the charts are not as nice but I can see through that by adjusting the colours. The worst part of IB chart trader is the lack of a tick chart. I have found scalping and setting trailing stops as my position moves to be so much easier with a tick chart.

Today I fired up the DDE link to FSXM with Amibroker and the data is now streaming. So at least I can set up some alerts to email me when price is getting close. If you are using FSXM and the FXTradingStation application let me know what you think of it. I was also wondering about sharing templates for that app, haven't found anywhere that does this.

This is the breakthrough. I ready to dump back tests and auto pilot systems for now. I've got risk management under control and I know my limits. A have some set-ups that I'm comfortable using. I have two issues left to solve and one is data availability / easy charting package, the other is to get comfortable with larger stops. The second will come , I think, with a larger account size, its all about percentage on the irsk side. The frst issue, charts, should be completed by Sunday night once the streaming quotes start to come in. I'll probably use Ami to look at tick data and some home grown indy's and use FXTradingStation for all other time frames and to place the trades. Tracking trades on FXTradingStation is also easy. I'd post chart shots bu the app wont open on the weekends when the servers are offline.

I'd be interested in knowing if anyone else uses a combination of Ami and FXTradingStation or Ami and FXCM to trade forex. What has your experience been?

Who is TMK?

2009-02-02T21:28:00.005-05:00

Quite a bit of testosterone stirred up over at The Market Kid (TMK) blog. If your not familiar with this blog, it's written by someone, nobody really knows who, that claims to be a kid. Some speculate that he or she is a high school student. "Kid" probably refers to a kid of the market, a child, a constant learner, anybody follow me here with this?

What's he do?
TMK posts penny stock picks, basically following the Timothy Sykes program. Look for shitty stocks that move up quickly on no news or bullcrap from the forums and look to short when they fizzle out. Sure, pennies can be a bit risky, and that's why you should have your money management system in place and following it. Pennies can be fun to play and profitable but you need to set up your rules and play the game to the rules or your going to get hammered like a hockey player with his head down crossing the blue line. ... game over, lights out.

Educational?
Is there anything to learn from this "TMK" blog? Sure there is. Look up some of TMK's past picks and judge for yourself. Even better, use the past picks and make some rules up, then simulate the trades. ya ya, no shares available, whatever... the point here is you can use the blog to grease your wheels.... do your own work... but it sure is easier having someone narrow down the thousands of stocks to sift through.

Is he a fraud?
You might care, I don't. We all trade differently, we all judge people differently. If someone were to take the posts, which are apparently the result of scans and preliminary manual chart scans by eye, and put their own trading strategy to work on them, and found some they could actually trade, and make a profit from the posts, who gives a rats ass who the hell TMK is? Not sure about you, but I'm in this for the money, and to learn about myself and how i react to in different market conditions (think trade journal)

What the point?
I want to make money trading, not friends, not enemies, not contacts, just cash. Who is MKT? Who gives a crap, but whoever writes the post isn't a teenage high school nerd. This person has some market insight and has either taken a course or two, spent hours reading through all the bull on the Internet, or is old enough to have been in the game for a while. TMK has probably watched the Sykes videos a few times, and read his books. There are legitimate blogs on the net by people that makes money day in and day out, and I ask you, do you trade their picks ? and make money from them? do you lose money also?

You are the master of your account. You are the master of your mouse. You are the master of your mouth. Do whatever you want. Blow up your account. Read blogs repeadadliy that you dont like. Blast your mouth off like anyone else values your opinion, to make sure everyone knows that YOU are RIGHT!! We all crave to be right, and isn't that why most people do terrible in the market?

I'm too busy trying to take some coin out of the market to give a rats ass about MKT's personal life or the comments some of his reader leave. When I sift through the comments, I simply look for MKT and read that part.... but sometimes the filth gets interesting, and we all like to read that crap sometimes, don't we?

Remember this
When the bell rings, your not my friend, I'm trying to take your money.

Currency Interest Rates

2009-01-24T14:28:00.009-05:00

Now that I'm using the daily and weekly charts, with an entry planned off the 4 hour chart, I need to think about the interest rates of the various currencies.

Many brokers will credit or debit your account on overnight forex positions.
Interest is calculated using the difference between the two currency interest rates. For example if you trade Euro Dollar, the ECB (European Central Bank) and FED (Federal Reserve) are the banks you would need to look too for the current rates.. If the ECB's rate is 2.25% and FED's rate is 4.25% the difference is -2%. A long (buy) position on Euro Dollar will generate a 2% debit interest on your account, a short position will generate a credit interest of 2%.

To show you the impact of this, here are a few examples and a link to use this currency interest rate tool. This is also know as the carry trade.

You need to know what will have an impact on your trade, and what the impact will be in order to make an informed decision. Using the chart below yo can see that the interest is minimal for most small trades, but of coarse this depends on the pairs, the rates, and the length of time you are holding the trade open.

I'm using this tool to narrow down the pairs I will be trading, and noting in my trade plan the desired trade to be on the right side of the interest rate. This will help me make my decision to trade the pair without having to goto the tool every time. Part of the weekly ritual is to update that table, for the pairs I have chosen to trade.

1 week for $30,000

1 weeks for $100,000

4 weeks for $30,000

Forex Trade Journal

2009-01-22T23:42:00.005-05:00

A Trade Journal is part of my trading plan. A comment was recently posted about journals so I thought I would share part of my journal. I plan to share the excel version once there are a few more trades in it. I started a new journal not long ago when I decided to do forex on the daily chart, explained a bit more below.

In books, on blogs, in the seminars, the experts tell you to keep a trade journal. Notice it doesn't read "trade log". The journal includes all items you would find in a "log" and more. You can read about journal all over the net. I have begun to trade forex daily and 4 hours charts with a simulation account using various set-ups. The only thing better than my little journal would be to actually print out the chart when entering the order and writing your thoughts on the chart as the trade progresses. I don't have a very good printer so I don't do that.

My journal started with a few column's and I have added and adjusted these as I went along. I wanted to not only record the trade details but also the reason I entered (what was the set up), the adjustments along the way as I checked the chart each evening, and once the trade closed I recorded my thoughts and comments on what I did wrong or things to watch out for in the future.

Here are the current columns I use.

Pair
L/S
Order Type
Entry
Reason for entry
Status
Exit
Pips of profit
Date of Entry
Date of exit
Days in trade
Mod 1
Mod 2
Mod 3
Mod 4
P/L
Review of Trade and comment on result

Make the journal your own. I review mine after each week, both the current week and the prior weeks. This makes it stick in your memory.

Are you ready to quite?

2009-01-17T22:34:00.005-05:00

There is a forex trader named Ryan O'Keefe. You may have visited his blog. He has a post up about traders who have started out with great intentions and have almost blown up their account. If this is you, your might be asking yourself is "Are you ready to quit?".

Even if you're not ready to quite, this is worth a read. The theme is simple but not stated. When your having a rough go at it, make your trading plan simple, dumb it down. Trade only one pair, use only one system, trade a demo for a bit, talk to someone about your trading if there is anyone available.

The biggest problem you'll have with this is patience and waiting. If your trading only one pair and one system, you may go quite some time, days or weeks before you get a signal. This is part of the training. Wait for the right time. If you miss it, wait for the next one.

I use a trading journal, it is a royal pain in the ass.... but I fill it out as soon as I enter an order, when the order triggers (now I'm in the market), as the trade progresses (still in the market, recording my thoughts as well as target and stop adjustments and why I made them), and when the trade exits. Once I'm out I look at the chart, using hindsight since it is 20/20, to see if I read the situation correctly, and managed risk effectively. I have noticed that the losses that hurt the most were the ones that I had placed the stops at a point to far away for my comfort zone.

Where to place the stop and target? This pretty much defines if I get decide to enter or not. I identify the target and initial stop first, if the risk/reward ratio is less than 2 I don't consider it. If it is greater than 2, I now look at the position size. Here is the problem I had with this.... IB has a minimum order size that I'm not comfortable with for some trades, the stop placement would be too much of a $$ loss. So I opened an account at MBtrading, they allow smaller lot sizes. I haven't placed any trades on their system yet. One I start it up I'll post some trades and ideas.

So the whole point to the post is to "get back to basics" and follow the rules you made up in your trade plan. That is why I am reading my trade plan tonight, and every other night, until it is burnt into my brain.

Good trading!

USDCAD

2009-01-16T23:48:00.006-05:00

Remember this post of the USDCAD?

Price dropped to resistance that can be clearly seen on the weekly chart. I've shown 3 support / resistance levels with the white lines. After the third push to 1.3000 price fizzled down to the middle white support line and bounced.... twice. We are now in a channel. There are several ways to play this. Here are a few ways to play it at the 1.3000 level.

1. Buy once price goes over 1.3000, stop just under that level to your taste, and depending on how much of a bet your placed.

2. Buy as price approaches 1.3000 looking for it to quickly snap through 1.3000 for a quick profit, riding the momo and using a trailing stop. This method would work for you if you think it will be hard to get in once it snaps through the level.

3. Wait for the break, then the pullback. I won't be doing this since I don't see the USD and CDN being more lopsided than it is right now. But the market doesn't care what I think.

4. Don't play the upside. I'll be waiting for the upside break, but I don't think it will happen. I expect the bottom to be the favoured direction.

To get past 1.3000, there will probably need to be some sort of catalyst. Having said that, watch for the bottom white line to be broken for a downside move.

I should note that this is based on daily and 4 hour charts. I will not go deeper than a 4 hour chart now trading forex. I have scaled down my position size and will trade based on daily and 4 hour time frames. To scale down my position sizes I've had to open up another forex account at a different broker since Interactive Brokers minimum size is too large for me to use with wider stops.

Chatroom

2009-01-01T11:59:00.004-05:00

blog.tipster.ca - Fullscreen

Free eBook for everyone! - How to find free books online

2008-12-17T23:23:00.008-05:00

Yet another effective way of minimizing capitol depreciation by NOT paying for books.

If you have been reading this blog for a while you might remember the post about how to find books on line for free. How to find free ebooks is the topic once again. The post was on Tools for trading education. Read it after this post for a complete understanding.

Recently I wanted to read a book and did a quick search for the title. (This post will not use specific book names in the text as there are often searches done to find websites that show others where to find this material. I will give you the tools, you find it yourself!!)

To find almost anything you want, use the Google advanced search. Check out the screen shot below that shows how I searched for the book. Here is the Google advanced search.

... and the results, see the "visited" link?

Here is the link to the advanced search page results from Google, a link for an ebook, go to the second page down near the bottom. You will quickly find a link to the pdf.

Here is yet another trick if you have made it this far. Right click on the google link and select "copy shortcut". Paste that into the address bar of your browser and then remove the last part of the link that is the file name. Then hit enter. This will, in most cases, show you the contents of the directory. In this case, you are presented with a long list of books you might be interested in reading. All you need know is a cold beer and a large monitor. Enjoy!

Tipster Trendlines - v2.1 being finalized

2008-12-10T22:49:00.006-05:00

I've just sent the latest code (v2.1) to three others who offered to help get it all working. For the most part it works fine, just needs some calculations for the risk panel. I've tried to make it determine risk based on user selection of stocks, futures, or forex.

There are a few other brand new features too.

With the extra help, this shouldn't take to long.

How to Trade from Work

2008-12-09T03:21:00.001-05:00

Don't want IT to know what your doing online? Trading, cruising porn, chatting, whatever you want to do, do it like you were sitting in front of your home computer. All IT can see is that you are accessing a remote computer, they won't know what your doing. It's your own proxy server!!

Use Windows Remote Desktop. This video takes you through a high level of setting this up. Sorry for the crappy quality.

Here is a resource for Remote Desktop Q&A.

An excerpt from the above:

Q. What port does Remote Desktop use? Does everything go over port 3389?

A. Port 3389 is the only port you need to open. Windows will attempt to stream sound through User Datagram Protocol (UDP) first. If no port is available for UDP, sound will stream through a virtual channel in Remote Desktop Protocol, which uses port 3389.

Q. How do I connect Windows Desktop Client to a remote port other than 3389?

A. In the Computer field in the Remote Desktop Client connection dialog, specify the port in either of the following ways:
• Computer name, colon, port number
Example: TSComputer: 22229 • IP address, colon, port number
Example: 192.168.1.1: 22229

USDCAD

2008-12-08T22:05:00.004-05:00

Interesting chart pattern on the USDCAD. Triple top with an ascending wedge. A triple top gives it a bearish feel but the pattern is not valid until it breaks lower support. The ascending wedge gives it a bullish overtone. Since we don't have volume to add to the clues, we can only use price action. Notice the buyers were not waiting to buy shown by the lower lows. Also the lower lows get closer together, so they are also not waiting as long to jump in. On the other hand, look how fast price jumped off the top resistance line, telling us all kinds of sellers came in, plus its a big super fat round number (1.3000).

Buy on a break over 1.3 with tight stops, it either goes like a f'n canon, or fakes out and reverses back into the channel.

On a break out, you could also put in a short stop order below the 1.3000 line to catch the fake out on its way back to the bottom of the channel.

This is the type of pattern I would use breakkouts on, not channel trading. The converting to USD might be over, then again it might not. Use price action to guide you. Don't enter at the middle of the channel, enter at the top or bottom, this allows you to use tight stops, control risk, and have an edge.

Trading from work

2008-12-03T00:10:00.005-05:00

There is a poll on the right side of the blog, "Do you trade from work?"

Do you? Take the poll.

If we take these results, we can see that 54% of the responders want or actually do access there trading account from work. Here is what I'm getting at; Does anyone want to see a video of how you can do this without the IT department knowing what your doing? There is nothing illegal here. You just have to know how technology works to be able to avoid the "tracking logs". Make no mistake, you will be a part of the log, but it wont show up that you are using TWS or WebTrader, or continually accessing your brokers web page.

You may be think, he is using a proxy server. No, that's not it, but close. So, do I have your attention? Take the poll first, then leave a comment.

Currently, this is what the poll looks like:

Good Reading and Video

2008-12-02T23:30:00.006-05:00

In my opinion, support and resistance with momentum are the way to trade. It involves the alignment of the trend on multiple time frames. You may have heard this before and it is difficult to put it to use. But it is like anything else, you need to practice. Practice makes you remember the rules. We have all heard that we should find something we are comfortable with and stick to it with discipline. If this is your style, all you need to do is pick the smallest time frame from which you want to trade. Use three time frames. I like to use the weekly, daily, and hourly to pick where I will enter.

The following video by Brian Shannon will help you understand this concept. If you want more reading, buy his book. He doesn't over complicate things, he makes it gumby pokey easy to understand. In case you don't know this because you've been living under a rock for 2 years, Shannon was the head of training at MarketWise for some time. They are a very good trading training firm in the US. Previously I have mention Sam Seidens work who also works for them. Shannon is a full time trader now. Buy his book. It is good for any type of trading, even forex. (If you use this link, I actually get paid a dollar or two).

In addition to this, if your interested in forex, read this PDF. It explains things pretty well at a high level. The "rules" and description of discipline and money management are honest, not a bullshit bunch of crap that is usually written.

Forex eBook

One more thing before the video. Read this post to understand more about support and resistance. It explains the Gap & VWAP. The VWAP is the volume weighted average price.

The video below is timeless. I watched it three times to memorize the info. If you can memorize it, you will do better. Think of your job, and how you just "know" what to do day in and day out. You know it becuase you have done it so many times. Use a demo account, that will help memorize the info and required action. Again, watch the video a few times.

Tipster Trendlines - Update

2008-11-26T22:43:00.006-05:00

This page is out of date, click "Tipster Trendlines" at the top of the page.

A quick update on the code; I haven't had much time to work on the code, not to motivated with the market jumping all over the place. I'm spending most of my "market" time evaluating my RRSP holdings. I'm also testing a strategy on the simulated account for longer term forex trades, s swing trade time frame from a day to a few weeks.

I hope to have the code ready in a week or two. Is anyone willing to test and give me feedback?

To qualify you need to know how to program in Amibroker, I'm looking for some help to test and tweak the code. Any takers? Drop me a line at my email, in the top right under "What this Blog is all about"

USDCAD Trade

2008-11-10T23:04:00.007-05:00

A video of a set up I am playing tonight. It looks like the USD buying might be over, or paused for now. If the markets break out, the USD probably wont move any higher. In any event, this trade is basically a small scalp that demonstrates my Tipster Trendline code for amibroker.

By the way, go see Brant's videos at http://www.trade-guild.net/ if you want another view of the market.

Wolfe Wave - look for them

2008-11-10T21:24:00.016-05:00

A while back I received an email from a reader (Michael) who stated that he uses wolf waves as one of his tools, and with some success. I have done some reading on wolfe waves and understand them to some extent, and I've even noticed the pattern a few times while trading. They are, like most patterns, obvious after the fact to the extent that you know if they were profitable or not.

The way I interpret the pattern is that it is a counter reaction to an over reaction. In other words, when price moves to fast in one direction, it often moves back quickly in the opposite direction. The catch is the entry in the wolfe wave. It gives you a relatively low risk entry to reward ratio. I see the pattern quick often in the volatile forex market. Take a look back on your charts and see if you can spot some of these. Better yet, slowly scroll forward and draw the lines as the pattern emerges, see if you get faked out or if you profit. And the same goes for any pattern, understand why it works and what the emotions are that are behind it and you will see it better.

I asked the reader if he would like to have a post here on wolf waves so we could better understand the pattern. Michael recommends a book called "Streetsmart" as it explains the pattern very well.

Here is Michael email (edited slightly):

There are two types of wolfe: one for going up, one for going down. so long and short. The key of the analysis is to discover 5 points and the last point 6th is the target

For Long:

Point 1 and 3 are the downside points, the 3rd must be lower tha 1st

Point 2 and 4 are the upperside points, the 4th must be lower than 2nd and higher than 1st.

When the trend goes to form the 5th point, which is lower the all the previous 4 points, and then begins to move up, you trace a line from 1st to 4th point, which gives you a projection to another point, the 6th point, which is the target.

So if the movement is right, price should go up and you make a huge gain. The stop can be placed below the lowest low, and now you can see the profit potential.

For Short, it is just contrary of this. I have enclose several pictures so you can see what I mean, one picture is worth a thousand words.

Tipster Trendlines - things to come

2008-10-26T23:59:00.005-04:00

The "free" version is no longer available. Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information.

Here is a short video showing you what I'm working on next for the Tipster Trendlines code. The code is not yet 100%, when it is, I'll post it. If you have any comments on what is being planned for the next version, leave a comment.

The new version will feature drop down menu's and trigger buttons right on the chart.

Enjoy!

What do you think is going on?

2008-10-22T22:35:00.003-04:00

This post is not meant as investment advice, it's purpose is to spark some comments and discussion.

What's your opinion on what the market is doing? Why all the volatility? Why the melt down? Why is the US dollar going nuts? What's up with the huge drop in oil? Why are great high dividend yield blue chip stocks taking a hit? Here are my thoughts;

Liquidity seems to be the issue. Investors were, and still are worried that the firm they have their money invested in will go bankrupt, or worse, the firm they have there money in has invested in some other firm that goes bankrupt. Either way your funds would be locked up in a bankruptcy and that's not liquid. This has caused people (or those on wall street) to cash out, stocks, commodities, everything. You never saw this coming did you? Wall street did, that's why there was a huge drop to begin this mess. Read the user groups on the early questions on the put volume of some of those firms that bit the dust. People were trying to figure out if they were buying or selling puts. Looks like they were buying puts and made a huge, huge killing on the firms that went tits up.

Why is gold not going up since it is the safe haven? Cash. Everyone wants cash. The biggest cash nation, rather richest nation is the USA. That's where the credit crunch started. Funds are liquidating investments world wide causing all indexes to fall from the massive selling. Once they sell a stock in a foreign country they must then convert the currency back to USD. The USD is going full tilt in an uptrend. I think you can almost compare currencies to see where the biggest exchange of funds is happening to some extent. In Canada, the oil and commodity prices are also killing us, that impacts the Canadian dollar. Why are the commodities dropping such as metals and gold? Liquidation.

This is going to be a long healing process, not a quick snap back to the market. The volatility is probably due to huge amounts of money being moved around, not the norm for the market. To end this, the mass amounts of cash has to be moved to the US and invested elsewhere.

So what is next?
When the time comes, when all the cash is back at home in the USA, who knows what will move. The first sign will be the indexes stabilize, then slow decline in the USD, then accelerated decline of the USD against the Canadian dollar, oil will rise, and whatever the US giants invest in will rise. If a recession is coming, look for a rise in recession proof stocks. The USD will cease to rise since there will be no more buyers.

What am I going to do? I'm going to try to ride the USD higher. When it snaps the uptrend, short away. But be careful and manage risk. The market will start to settle down and into a trend when the normalcy again, weather its a bear or bull market.

That's my theory. What's yours?

Globe and Mail and the way forward

2008-10-18T08:01:00.003-04:00

This is a look at the past, the present, and the future.

A while back I was contacted by the Globe and Mail and asked to participate in the "Me and My Money" column. The column is below, click to enlarge. The paper version has a fairly large picture of me playing my guitar, very cool.

Larry MacDonald also mentioned me in his own blog, where he discussed day trading on the TSX. Anyone else out there day trade the TSX? Technically, I'm not day trading since I don't watch the screen during the day. I put my order in at night, it could trigger the buy and sell in the same day, thus called a "day trade". Below the article I describe what has changed since then.

Page 1

Page 2

Something has changed since the article was written. I have moved all of the RRSP accounts that hold mutual funds to a discount brokerage. IB does not offer RRSP, LIRA, or RESP accounts so I went elsewhere.

Why did I do this?:

First of all, I had my funds in RRSP's for the same reason most other people do, not enough time to manage it and for the long term I felt the pro's would do a better job. For the most part this might be true. The single issue I have with this is their ability to exit when they smell something rotten, such as a declining 50 day MA, even worse with a declining 200 day MA. Even if they knew a few US firms were about to implode, how could they liquidate a fund of that size? Who cares. I know I could liquidate my holdings in a blink of an eye and not cause any market movement.

The long term plan:
First of all, cash is a position. Decide for yourself when to get in and get out, before your emotions take control. Here is my plan. After reading a book about a guy who purchased solid dividend paying companies, and retiring, I decided to go on my own. I will only purchased companies with that meet certain criteria, the top two are "must pay dividends" and "from the chart". There is more to the dividend research than that, just like there is more to the "chart" than that. Basically, dividend paying companies in an uptrend, or at support.

How has it worked so far? Pretty good. In the past few weeks some of the fund transfer was complete so I went on a search to find some stocks on the TSX. (I wasn't about to buy on the US exchange as the CDN dollar has been beaten up lately). One of the stocks that I set up an order for was BMO. All four stocks had limit orders set up, set up at prior support. I figured it could take up to 4 weeks to get a fill if the market was going to be ranging. To my surprise, the very next day the market got killed. All four orders were filled. Scary you might say. It turned out pretty good. Patience to wait for the price was a key, after all, it's long term. Here's a chart, my fill price is the white horizontal line.

BMO.TO - Weekly

BMO.TO - Daily

Notice that there is a triple bottom, and each bottom on the weekly chart has less volume, that's good. As far as risk management for this trade there are two options.

First, if the price breaks that support - get out quick, usually a fourth test of a horizontal line is like a hot knife through butter.
Second, set the stop at my break even while considering any dividends received, perhaps setting the stop a little lower for breathing room. I'm looking at the close prices before I place a stop order.
Third - never sell. Strange thing to say but at the white line it is 7.5% yield. Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

So lets sit back and see which way the market heads. The path of least resistance is down. To be back in an uptrend we need higher lows and higher highs. Or we could range for a long, long time. If you want to see what a bottom looks like (it's hardly ever a V on a daily chart), check out today's video at alphatrends.net. Also take a look at this Bear Market Post to gain perspective. Yo be your own judge. If your confused, put your money under your mattress and wait for the bullets to stop flying. Cash is a position. If you know what your doing, follow your trade plan.

One more thing - I almost have a working version of an updated tipster trendlines with more bells and whistles. This one has trigger buttons and drop down menus right on the chart. Should be ready in a week or so. Is anybody using version 1.0 or 1.1 of the code to trade with?

Chart Trading Question

2008-10-04T22:36:00.007-04:00

A reader emailed a question about the tipster trendline chart trading code that I thought would be beneficial to others if I posted it. I'm not offering any advice or opinion on the set-ups profit potential, only how the code works and IB's order triggers.

"I attached a graphic, in which you can see, on 1st of Oct. I wanted to short IMS, on breakout of the bottom of the previous candle, but as you can see the candle of 1st of Oct, is a strong up candle. My stop order of sell should not trigger, and my buy stop (which is my stop loss) is set to 12.39$, so what happen in IB."

Line BS is the buy stop order. The price must go below this level for the order to trigger. This is the "Parent" order.

Line ST is the stop loss order. This is a child order, child of Parent order "BS". This order is will not trigger until the Parent order triggers (BS).

Line TA is the target order. This is a child order, child of Parent order "BS". This order will not trigger until the Parent order triggers (BS).

So in this example, if the BS order was a "DAY" order and not a "GTC" (Good 'Till Cancelled) order, at the close of Oct 2 the order BS has not triggered, therefore ST and TA will not trigger. At the close of the day the orders will automatically disappear from TWS and you would not have a position.

How does this work in TWS? To see how this works, left click on the coloumn titles of your order page inside TWS. You need to add a field called "OCA" (One Cancels All). The Parent order (BS) will be blank. The two child orders (TA and ST) will have the same numbers in the field.

When you set up a bracket order manually within TWS, this is basically what TWS is doing for you. You can also do it manually. Try it manually to learn something. You can also use this technique to capture a breakout of a range, such as a squeeze in price, if you want to catch a move to the upside or downside. I haven't played with this type of order very much but I'm sure it can be done so that when you get a break in one direction, the orders for the other direction are cancelled.

Risk Management

2008-09-26T20:00:00.006-04:00

Risk is job 1. Patience is job 2. What the hell does that mean?

Patience is important for entries and exits, jumping into trades to early, not waiting long enough for the price to run, can be counter productive to the outcome of the completed trade. I think this goes without saying but it's harder to do in real time than most think. This post is not about patience, I mention it only as a comparison to risk being job 1. Risk can be managed, and should be to avoid your "hope" that price will follow.

There are poeple who make a killing from "pump and dump". The people who buy once its hyped, and do not sell even though the price keeps declining, are 'hoping' and are not controlling risk. You would think that the stock is purchased prior to the pump by the insiders. It is, but it is also shorted at the crest when no more buyers show up. Watch the volume, that shows you how many people are at your party. When the party gets lame, leave and look for a new one. Easier said than done for most. Use bracket order to control your risk, thats one method.

Rather than write about what I mean by risk, here are some posts on the topic.

The 2% Rule
Position Sizing - Bull Trapper
Position Sizing - Trader Mike
Position Sizing Spreadsheet
R-Multiples

Another source is a book called "Trade your way to Financial Freedom", or "Technical Analysis using Multiple Time frames" . To search for books that may be available on the net in pdf, take a look at this post "Tools For Trading Post".

I developed a screen that shows me how much to risk based on the account balance. I use some afl code in Amibroker I developed with the help of some code from the Amibroker Knowledge base web site. The starting code had nothing to do with risk. It is using Amibrokers new graphics commands and allows you to put buttons and graphics on the screen, the same area as the price plot. The code is a bit rough around the edges but I post it so you can at least have basic functionality. I plan on making it much more robust shortly. The final version will not be shared though, unless the is a contibuton made.

There is two parts to this code. First, a chart to draw lines. Second, a pane that has code to display risk, profit, etc. The first chart with the lines writes the static variables of entry, stop, and target as well as the ChartID and order of lines (long or short set up). The second retrieves the variables and some information from your Interactive Brokers account and computes a bunch of information automatically for you.

Here is a video that explains what it all is and the code. I also explain some of the basic of the bracket order; how it triggers, how it cancels, etc.

Part 1 - To use the code, you need to draw 3 (horizontal) lines on your charts to define entry, stop, and target. That code can be found on the post titled "Tipster Trend lines Post"

Part 2 - The second chart, or pane, or code snippet is right here. "Risk Management Code"

Michael'sScreen Shot

2008-09-24T23:43:00.008-04:00

Here is a screen shot from Michael. His version of "nothing special" is a simple screen.

I have heard that the two most valuable assets for a trader is screen time and discipline. Screen time is your ability to see price action without indicators. Over time I have noticed that you get a better feel for charts and price action by simply watching it live. Try this to see what I mean; look at a chart of the S&P or QQQQ every half hour throughout the day, keep notes every half hour on what you see and where price might go next. Note support and resistance lines. What you get from this is a timeline. You understand how long it takes for things to happen. If you can't do this at work, than watch a different market such as Australia stocks, Forex, or Gold.

Michael writes:
This is my screen shot, as you can see it is nothing special, I use at most two indicator like PPO and ADX for detect HDIV and DIV and pattern like Wolfe Waves.

Michael is also preparing a guest post on Wolf Waves, we look forward to that post.

Short Interest

2008-09-24T23:26:00.003-04:00

If you use Short Interest as part of your strategy, I draw your attention to a recent comment.

"If you're doing this sort of thing for a living, then you need more timely information. Here's a site that provides that for a nominal cost:

http://www.squeezetrigger.com

He also states that he does not how good the info is. I haven't done any digging but as far as I know the short interest for stocks is release twice per month by the NASDAQ exchange and I'm not sure about the NYSE. Therefore, I doubt the info is more timely than anywhere else, but it might be for other exchanges. If anyone knows, please share.

Tipster Trendlines

2008-09-24T23:18:00.007-04:00

Thanks to Murthy for additional code for the Tipster Trendlines, trading from the chart.
He has added functionality that tells you if your lines are off the viewable chart area along with some other functionality.

A new version of Tipster Trendlines is available.

The "free" version is no longer available. Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information.

Pete's Screenshot

2008-09-24T22:48:00.008-04:00

Pete sent me his screen shots. He shows us one EOD and one Intraday screen. He's trading index fuures on these charts. From his description, it looks like he's visited DayTraderRockStar. Pete, great set up, good job. This is an example of simple uncluttered screen. This is very close to a template I'm working on at the moment for futures. I'm currently working on my "Radar Screen" that has overall market Ticks, Puts/Call ratio, and Trin as well as some of the majors.

Instead of me re-writing what he has sent me here it is;

I would also recommend www.powercharting.com for some really great information on trade setups for trading futures intraday. The two charts I'm sharing are rather new for me. I just configured them a couple weeks ago when I started doing a little intraday trading.

The intraday setup chart is pretty simple. I use the real-time quote window on the bottom to select the security I want to view. The 15 and 5 min charts are linked so they show the same ticker. I use a 20 period EMA along with a 200 period MA. Those horizontal lines you see are pivot levels. I have since refined the code to calculate weekly and daily pivots on an intraday chart automatically. I just love the flexibility Amibroker offers.

The EOD setup is an example of my pivot point calculations (shorter lines at far right), and I have a few longer trend lines which are there to remind me of weekly and monthly support/resistance levels.
I have been working all summer long on developing a trading system. For now I don't have anything to show in that area as it is still a work in progress.

Thanks again for sharing and also for providing an environment for others to share.

New Feature

2008-09-18T13:20:00.003-04:00

A new feature has been added to the right sidebar. You may have seen this on other blogs, the "Recent Comments" list. It takes the most recent comments from all posts and sorts them by when the comment was made. I guess it could also double as a text messaging type chat. So next time you post a comment, no matter what post, it will be displayed under the recent comments header.

Screen Shots

2008-09-15T23:20:00.029-04:00

A call to all users of charting software!

Often we read about trading systems and methods, risk management, triggers, market indicators, and the list goes on. As I read through blogs and trading books that talk about set-ups, triggers, stops I often ask myself "everything is being presented except the final piece of the puzzle", usually this is the entry and initial stop placement. Sure, once the trade gets going there is an entire different approach; when to take profits and how soon to move the stop. I wonder what the screen looks like that these guys are trading from? How do they arrange the windows to make it easy to monitor the things they need to monitor. I've seen pictures of huge desk's with multiple monitors. What's on these screens? Have you ever watched videos on Youtube by the "Suck My NASDAQ" guy? He's a day trader that makes pretty good calls but he never gives you details and never shows you his screen. Until we see what he is looking at, we cannot tell his source of info, or what he's using to form his "opinion". Not that we need too.

I thought I would use this blog to post some screen shots of various users. I don't know what exactly it will generate in terms of ideas or education, but it will be interesting. My screen has developed over the years moving averages and a bunch of indicators to only a few screens. I only use indicators I understand. My current screen for day trading has a 5 minute, 1 minute, risk screen, and pivot points. For end of day trading I use two screens which I have shown on previous videos, one that has moving averages and order entry (where I draw horizontal lines for entry, stop, and targets), and the other is the risk screen.

How to do a screen shot (screen capture)

Method 1: This is the method I use. Maximize your application that you want to capture. Press the "Prt Scr" key (above the "Home" key). Open up your email application and "paste" the image. If you want to trim it first, open up your Microsoft Paint or something similar (I use a really old version of Paint Shop Pro) and edit the image.

Method 2: Use other software the capture, Paint Shop Pro also does this (I use a really old version, simple but effective). You could also use something like screen Hunter 4.0 (Freeware).

Danger:

The problem with looking at other peoples code and screen captures is that you tend to want to try it all to find the silver bullet. I've tried so many formulas and set-ups that I eventually figures out what I wanted. You don't know what you want or can have until you know the boundary's of what is available, then you find yourself satisfied. I'm down to using different types of moving averages, stochastics, ATR, and TTM on bar charts (I found that I don't like candlestick charts). I also found I prefer blue and red bars. This took hours of looking at charts to find my ultimate preference. So a word of caution when you look at screen shots, before you ask "how did you do that, can you share the code?", consider if it would really be useful to your trading game. On the other hand, perhaps you need to immerse yourself in all that's available in order to find what works for "you".

I would like to post screen shots of other users, doesn't matter what software you use. Please email me your screen shots to tsxtrends @ gmail dot com (fix the email address, it is modified to prevent spam engines). It would also be helpful to have a small description to help people understand “why” and "what" they are looking at.

Here is a screen shot of my EOD screens (using my IB simulated account). I'll post my other screens later next week.

Above: Main screen with MA's. Watch the videos for additional info on this screen.

Screen Shots by David W
He writes:
"I have lots of screens and indicators that I have tested and tried over the last few years – and now tend to use 2-5 indicators, CCI, and a price chart. In other words I have my favorites. This is a great idea because I got to this point looking at other peoples screens and setups. Would only take a few minutes for the screen shot. Also this is exactly how I am documenting my system – screen shots and descriptions in Word. Further, If I like someone’s idea – I add it to my future plan section in my Trading Plan. "

Tipster Trendlines

2008-08-28T14:00:00.005-04:00

This page is out of date, click "Tipster Trendlines" at the top of the page.

The "free" version is no longer available. Go to the Tipster Trendlines 2.1 post for additional information.Trading from the chart - what a concept!

AFL code to trade from your Amibroker Chart

I've had many emails asking me for the code that I use to trade stocks from the Amibroker chart as seen in this chart trading example video post. I've decided to release the code since that is the spirit of the Internet I enjoy most. I was using separate files but to make this easier I've rolled them up, now there are only two files. Before you grab the files, please watch the quick video.

Make sure you test this yourself, all types of trades, Long, Short, at MKT, at LMT, at STP. And always make sure you double check the order entry in TWS before your transmit the order. I take NO responsibility if your a hammerhead and don't check your orders before you send transmit to the exchange.

MessagePanelInclude.afl - put this file in your default include directory. This is usually /Amibroker/Include/
TipsterTrendlines.afl - put this in your "custom" folder, or where ever you like, it will work from anywhere.

Click on the file names above, when the window open press "CNTL-A" to select all, then "CNTRL-C" to copy. Paste the code into a text editor like "Notepad" and save with an "afl" extension.
(BTW, donation button is on the right)
What it will do and won't do

Use this code to place bracket orders with trend lines drawn right on the Amibroker chart.
It does NOT allow you to use Amibroker to sell or cover, only place bracket orders.
Lines should be called BS - Buy or Short, TA - Target, ST - Stop (case insensitive)
Once you place the order and transmit, you need to manually adjust the target and stop inside TWS, the code does NOT do this for you once your order is placed.
You must have Amibroker 5.0 or above for the coloured bar to appear at the top of the chart.

Installation

Put the file "MessagePanelInclude.afl" in your include directory.
Put the file "TipsterTrendlines.afl" in your custom directory
Right click on the TipsterTrendlines" in the "Charts" sidebar and click "Insert" or "Insert Linked"
You can run "Debugview" to see what the program is transmitting to TWS. Debugview is in your windows directory.
You need to install IBController for Amibroker to communicate with TWS, it's available on the Amibroker website.
Make sure you set up TWS API interface under "global" config, and set trusted IP to 127.0.0.1

Potential Issues

This code uses GetChartID and therefore might give you odd results if you open another chart with the same code and place trend lines with the same labels (BS, ST, TA). It might place an order for the wrong symbol, I have not tested this. To get around this either consider using the actual chart ID (available in the parameters window)
There is no code to keep from placing multiple orders. If you hit "Buy" twice, you will place two orders, so be careful.
The code also does not check for waiting or pending orders.
This code works for stocks only, or other instruments with 2 decimal places. Forex uses 4 decimal places, so if you try Forex, you order is rounded, therefore do not use with Forex.

Improvements

In the future I may add additional functionality such as that listed above. If you have improvements on the code please let me know about the improvements.
Check for pending or waiting order to prevent multiple orders from being transmitted
Make display bar used as buttons (transmit, auto-trade on off, Long, Short, Close, Reverse, Cancel Order
Drop down menus can also be added And lastly, if you like the code, please post a comment to this post.

Stock data from Yahoo

2008-08-25T22:37:00.003-04:00

Here is a sample of data that is retrieved from Yahoo! for MDCO, on the Nasdaq. This is the data source that I use for the short interest scan.

Trading from the chart with Amibroker

2008-08-25T14:35:00.003-04:00

I've had a few inquiries about the code for chart trading with Amibroker. I will be posting the code soon. Should be up in the next week or so.

Weekly Nasdaq Scan

2008-08-24T19:13:00.005-04:00

Keep an eye on these stocks as the week progresses. This scan includes the short interest ratio and the increase in shorts from the last reporting period. Short positions are reported bi-monthly, see the link on the right for more information, it takes you to the NASDAQ Short Interest page. As a stock reaches new highs the shorts will start to feel the pain and some are forced to cover for a variety of reason, including margin calls. This gives the upward move more fuel, try to ride the tide. Here is the spreadsheet for the Nasdaq SI Scan Aug 24 2008.

Compared to last week, there are allot fewer shorts that show up on this list, and the number of stocks that have increased in shorts are far less. Does that signal a turn around?

SDS Update

2008-08-20T00:15:00.001-04:00

Here is an update to the SDS trade posted yesterday.

Another example of trading with trendlines

2008-08-18T20:51:00.007-04:00

I thought I would take the "potential" set-up Brian Shannon spoke of in his video today to show the "Trading with Trendlines" code I have written for Amibroker, interfaced with Interactive Brokers TWS platform. Both the set-up video by Alphatrends and my own video are below.

Alphatrends

Trading with Trendlines

Poll

2008-08-18T10:51:00.005-04:00

I've added a new poll on the right side of the blog, "Do you trade from work?" This assumes you have a regular day job. Please take the poll, I'll be doing a short video soon on trading from work.

Do you have a questions that would be appropriate for a poll, that would give you a better sense of what other trader are doing? Perhaps "do you use a moving average crossover as part of your trading system?" If you have any suggestions, I'd like to hear them.

NASDAQ scan for upcoming week

2008-08-16T02:07:00.010-04:00

This scan includes short interest as well. Watch the video for details. All the stocks are longs and all are on NASDAQ. You can also get the excel file for the NASDAQ Scan Aug16 2008.

A nice toy, just say it!

2008-08-11T00:46:00.008-04:00

If you use the command "Say" in AFL, or some other kind of audio alerts, check this site out;
http://www.research.att.com/~ttsweb/tts/demo.php
This site lets you type in the text, listen to it, and download it. Easy and painless. You can select different voices as well. It sounds tons better than other text to speech engines I've heard, and it sure beats the basic voice Microsoft gives you (Amibroker uses the Microsoft engine when you call the "say" function, look it up in AFL help)

I use the "Lauren" voice to tell me all about the orders I submit, or if there are data errors, etc. Why stop there? You can use these sounds as part of your windows sounds scheme too.

So when you boot up your computer after dinner to plan the day for tomorrow, this is what you could hear.

Software Applications for Trading

2008-08-10T17:36:00.005-04:00

Here's what you need to interface between Amibroker and TWS to trade with trend lines and auto trade. I also do a scan of the TSX and update an earlier trade.

Scan of NASDAQ and short interest

2008-08-10T06:00:00.000-04:00

Tonight I ran a scan of the NASDAQ looking for stocks that are in one of two categories, the same criteria used in the last video I posted. There is one addition, I have added the short interest to the output (not used in the filter, just displayed on the output)

1. 10 day MA > 20 day MA > 50 day MA and 50 day MA rising
2. 10 day MA < 20 day MA < 50 day MA and 50 day MA falling

Other filters are in there as well, simple things like today cannot be the highest high in the past 5 days, the 20 day avg volume has to be more than 200K, today cannot be the lowest low over the past 5 days. This is trying to catch a basic pull back, or a stock correcting over time in a range. Here is the link to the spreadsheet with the scan. In the video I explain the san results.

Indicators

2008-08-09T08:01:00.002-04:00

DAX, QQQQ, SPY, IWM, TSX Stocks, Forex, whatever you trade, price patterns and understanding why price moves is probably better than memorizing patterns. Take a look at a MACD divergence and a price chart that uses the same MA's as the MACD. Find a divergence. Look at the patterns of higher highs and lowers lows. Notice that you can see these if you look. I find the most use for indicators is to filter my scan results.

Here is an interesting concept that I have looked at, it comes from some forum somewhere. I believe it has merit.

Crossover systems will generally do well when traded intraday, not so good when traded of daily prices. By substituting different filters based on the most recent action of the chosen market, you can use their basic rules (idea) forever. You can program this to be self adjusting (auto optimize).

As part of my exploration scan for trending stocks, I use the double stochastic, it filters out stocks that aren't pulling back quite to where I would like to see. This is a good use for an indicator, not as sole selection criteria. Support and resistance, and a dose of anticipation.

Using Multiple Trading Systems

2008-08-08T18:01:00.001-04:00

Some info I found while surfing. I don't use neaural nets but I can relate to using multiple systems to increase trading frequency. The system should be non-correlated. It's a good read.

First find out what is going on in the market you want to trade in the timeframe you plan on holding a position. If you want to day trade with one trade per-day then find out all the different ways the day has played out in the past. Ex. trend day, two-way day, reversal day, etc.

Once you've done this you should have an idea of which type of day is most common and which is most profitable. Then define something which could be of value to trade one of the market types. An example might be in a reversal day to find out how often the market makes a low of the day in the first 15 min. of the session. If it happens often enough to be of interest then you go on to the next step.

Take every period for which the target is found and create a table of outputs with 1 for the target and 0 for non-targets. Then pre-process all the inputs into the target and convert them to binary inputs. (A common mistake is to take open, high, low, and close data -- analog and assume you can find relationships with the target). For ex. yesterday close > day before yesterday close. If found mark the input as a 1 if not present mark it as a 0. Do this for as many identifies as you can. This may present a hundred or more binary inputs leading to the target for each day of the data.

Then you'd pass the data into a backprop neural net and have it train on the data. (You’ll need to set aside some data for out of sample testing). Once it's trained to hit at least 90% correctly test the NN on the out-of-sample data. If you hit at least 85% correctly then you can do one of two things. If you're a discretionary trader, setup the NN and pre-process the inputs every day and use the net to predict whether tomorrow has the target (in this example the low of the day is within 15 min. of the start of the session). If so use it to trade to the upside as long the net remains 85% correct. If you're a systems trader then go back to the net and look at the weights of the net to see which of the binary inputs were most important in hitting the target. Use the inputs to create a back testable system based on the patterns. A system might be when xyz pattern exists then buy next bar above the lowest bar as long as the time is within the first 15 min. of the day. Set the stop to one tick below the low.
If the system tests profitable enough to be of interest then move on to the next step.

Next, take the trades and test them against random trades pulled from the same year (the edge test). Rank the trades versus random for each year of the back test. If the trades score consistently above the 70th percentile then you can guess you've found an edge-based system. If not, then you have to assume you've found a temporal characteristic in the data that can be exploited for some period of time.

If its edge based then all you need to do is adjust the trades for market volatility and apply a money management strategy. Check the trades on a periodic basis to ensure the edge continues and plan what to do with your next million. If it's not edge based you can still trade it but you need to setup an objective bailout method such as running a monte carlo sim and determining the bailout point to be say the 95% level of the predicted max drawdown point. Your trading would be more defensive using a non-edge based method as well. Maybe you'd split the trade size in half and have a 15 min. or 10% of daily range as a filter to adding the second position (letting the position prove itself) as long as the volatility was large enough to justify the scaled entry.

Every model I've worked on has gone through the same process. Look at the behaviour’s present in a market; characterize them by creating a rule and checking the fit until all behaviour’s are noted. Then start looking to see if there is a component to the behaviour that is non-random. If so, develop a system to mine it and create a way to monitor the behaviour to ensure it's persistent over time. For example, one of the behaviour’s widely known is the trend day in the SP market. It can be identified just by visually inspecting a chart. I characterized it as a low/high within 10% of the low/high of the day and the close within 20% of the high/low of the day. With the definition I can see how many of these days have persisted over the years (averages about 25 day’s per-year). Then I can see if there is a way to identify these days in advance (realizing I'm going to also be capturing some false days as well).

The algorithm used to adjust the number of contracts traded to volatility is calculated by the range (high - low), then average it for the past ten days. I use ten because I want my model to cut back on size pretty quickly if the volatility jumps. Then I divide the highest historical 10 day volatility (approx. 48 pts.) by the current volatility (ex. 8 pts) to come up with a multiplier (ex. 6). The model would then apply 6 contracts for the next trade. This is not the final size used to trade. It's just used to adjust the model for volatility levels so I measure one period against another without volatility being a consideration.
By doing so, I can see if the same level of opportunities persist from period to period. I can also use these normalized trades to feed into money management models as well as Monte Carlo tests to estimate future performance and drawdowns. If you were to use trades from say 2000 and 2004 for the SP market in a Monte Carlo test without normalizing volatility you'd get a much distorted estimate of future performance.

Comment from reader:
Just to make sure I understand the big picture, this is all being done to increase frequency in the desired profitable time period, correct? So if I understand, sub-par models tested individually with low frequency can be morphed into an above-par model when combined with other non-correlated sub-par models (assuming they're not too sub-par), thus increasing frequency, consistency, and lowering the need for a higher profit factor? Thank you for presenting the information the way you did, I would not have made that connection otherwise (assuming I’m on the right track). Fascinating.

Trading System Development

2008-08-08T11:00:00.001-04:00

Trading system development – The DUM method

D - Define

All systems are based on finding and pulling a fundamental truth about the market. Define what fundamental truth you'll be going after. Eg. All markets have a tendency to trend beyond random. Now you've got the definition that most technical-based hedge funds are derived from.

U - Understand

Determine the conditions under which the defined truth tends to occur. In the case of a trend tendency it could be when does the trend tendency begin beyond random? This will lead you to how to measure a trend. Since trends can occur randomly, how do I determine if a trend is beyond a confidence level of randomness? Does the trending tendency beyond random exhibit the same degree of persistence beyond one year? two years? 5 years? If not, is there some point at which the persistence beyond random occurs every year? If so, does it also persist at the same frequency for 5, 10, 50 different markets? If so, you've discovered a fundamental truth and you now understand what you need to know about the behaviour.

M - Mine

Once you understand the conditions under which the behaviour occurs, you write the code necessary to map the understanding of the behaviour. Is the code going to be all inclusive of many markets? or try to just go after the best of the best? Once mapped it's a mechanical process to determine how well it maps against the behaviour. After you're satisfied you've developed a satisfactory method for mining the behaviour, you can do an edge test to see if it happens beyond random. If not, use Monte Carlo sims to determine confidence levels for trading the method. Determine at what confidence level you'll stop trading. Examine the drawdown versus the profit. Is it worth risking any money on this? If so, allocate money using a money management scheme.

After you're done with this, you'll have your first system. Next, develop a complimentary system (non-correlated). Go through the same process for (a different type) a range bound system. Once you've gone through the mining stage, use the correlation test to weight the two systems. Apply the weights to the money management scheme and move on to your third system.

Trading with Amibroker

2008-08-08T00:01:00.005-04:00

In this video I'll show you how I enter trades using Amibroker and the interface to Interactive Brokers TWS platform. I also briefly discuss how I find the stocks that I trade, using an Amibroker exploration. I wrote the interface code for two main reasons, to eliminate input errors using a graphical interface, and to speed up my order entry. IB's chart trader has it's use, but its not suited for what I want to do, not to mention its clunky and not customizable to my liking. Enjoy the video!

Short Interest and the Short Squeeze

2008-08-06T22:38:00.007-04:00

The NASDAQ web site allows you to take a look at the short positions over the past year or so by semi monthly data. This data is posted twice a month and is also available on Yahoo. I download this into Amibroker, sort it, scan it, and out comes the short data. The filtering I do involves the positions of the moving averages. The 10 above the 20 above the 50. I'll look at each of these and buy on strength anticipating a break out with a tight stop in case the breakout fails.

Here is the data for the last part of July, the new number will be available in a few days. When the new numbers come out I'll post the scan again. I can also run the scan every weekend to see what stocks look like the might advance. If you don't know what a short squeeze is, Google it.

The thing to remember here is that the high short interest is not the only reason to get involved in the stock but it sure helps fuel it to new heights. This scan picks stocks that have momentum and are poised to advance. You can get the excel version by clicking the image.

Scans

2008-08-03T18:50:00.002-04:00

Check back frequently, I'll be posting scans for the TSX and the US markets. The TSX scans are based on momentum buys. The US market scans are for short interest. You can use the short interest scan to look at some charts and select those that look poised to move on a short squeeze.